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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 693:
Inefficient Short-Time Work

This paper shows that the reforms which expanded short-time work in France after the great 2008-2009 recession were largely to the benefit of large firms which are recurrent short-time work users. Pierre Cahuc and Sandra Nevoux argue that this...

By Cahuc Pierre, Nevoux Sandra
  • Published on 09/11/2018
  • 32 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (440.39 KB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 692:
When Short-Time Work Works

Short-time work programs were revived by the Great Recession. To understand their operating mechanisms, Pierre Cahuc, Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux first provide a model showing that short-time work may save jobs in firms hit by strong negative...

By Cahuc Pierre, Kramarz Francis, Nevoux Sandra
  • Published on 09/10/2018
  • 67 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (698.99 KB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 691:
External Credit Ratings and Bank Lending

Christophe Cahn, Mattia Girotti and Federica Salvadè study how third-party rating information influences firms' access to bank financing and real outcomes. They exploit a refinement in the rating scale that occurred in France in 2004. The new...

By Cahn Christophe, Girotti Mattia, Salvadè Frederica
  • Published on 08/28/2018
  • 41 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (628.44 KB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 690:
The Toll of Tariffs: Protectionism, Education and Fertility in Late 19th Century France

Vincent Bignon and Cecilia García-Peñalosa examine a novel negative impact of trade tariffs and the costs they induce by documenting how protectionism reversed the long-term improvements in education and the fertility transition that were well under...

By Bignon Vincent, Garcia-Peñalosa Cecilia
  • Published on 08/22/2018
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (745.61 KB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 689:
International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Evidence from France and Italy

In this paper Julia Schmidt, Marianna Caccavaio, Luisa Carpinelli and Giuseppe Marinelli provide empirical evidence on the impact of US and UK monetary policy changes on credit supply of banks operating in Italy and France over the period 2000-2015,...

By Schmidt Julia, Caccavaio Marianna, Carpinelli Luisa, Marinelli Giuseppe
  • Published on 08/13/2018
  • 32 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (593.17 KB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 688:
Estimating Non-Linear DSGEs with the Approximate Bayesian Computation: an application to the Zero Lower Bound

Estimation of non-linear DSGE models is still very limited due to high computational costs and identification issues arising from the non-linear solution of the models. Besides, the use of small sample amplifies those issues. Valerio Scalone advocates...

  • Published on 08/10/2018
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1001.84 KB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 687:
Bad Sovereign or Bad Balance Sheets? Euro Interbank Market Fragmentation and Monetary Policy, 2011-2015

Silvia Gabrieli and Claire Labonne measure the relative role of sovereign-dependence risk and balance sheet (credit) risk in euro area interbank market fragmentation from 2011 to 2015. They combine bank-to-bank loan data with detailed supervisory...

By Gabrieli Silvia, Labonne Claire
  • Published on 08/01/2018
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.09 MB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 686:
Measuring “Indirect” Investments in ICT in OECD Countries

ICT components, such as microprocessors, may be embodied in other capital goods not recorded as ICT in National Accounts. Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giorgio Presidente and Vincenzo Spiezia name ‘indirect ICT investment’ the value of embodied ICT...

By Cette Gilbert, Lopez Jimmy, Presidente Giorgio, Spiezia Vincenzo
  • Published on 07/30/2018
  • 15 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (903.29 KB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 685:
Classifying Patents Based on their Semantic Content

In this paper, Antonin Bergeaud, Yoann Potiron and Juste Raimbault extend some usual techniques of classification resulting from a large-scale data-mining and network approach. This new technology, which in particular is designed to be suitable to big...

By Bergeaud Antonin, Potiron Yoann, Raimbault Juste
  • Published on 07/11/2018
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (8.73 MB)

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 684:
An Experimental Analysis Of The Effect Of Quantitative Easing

In this paper Adrian Penalver, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Eizo Akiyama, Yukihiko Funaki and Ryuichiro Ishikawa report the results of a repeated experiment in which a central bank buys bonds for cash in a quantitative easing (QE) operation in an otherwise...

By Penalver Adrian, Hanaki Nobuyuki, Akiyama Eizo, Funaki Yukihiko, Ishikawa Ryuichiro
  • Published on 06/11/2018
  • 34 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.94 MB)

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 683:
Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers

Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or...

By Bordo Michael, Istrefi Klodiana
  • Published on 06/08/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (1.23 MB)

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 682:
Shocks vs Menu Costs: Patterns of Price Rigidity in an Estimated Multi-Sector Menu-Cost Model

Relying on a menu-cost model augmented with a time-dependent (Calvo) component, Erwan Gautier and Hervé Le Bihan investigate the structural sources of cross-sectoral heterogeneity in patterns of price setting. They use a large micro dataset of French...

  • Published on 05/24/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (927.68 KB)