Working Paper Series no. 124: Technology Shock and Employment: Do We Really Need DSGE Models with a Fall in Hours?

Abstract

The recent empirical literature that uses Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) has shown that productivity shocks identified using long--run restrictions lead to a persistent and significant decline in hours worked. This evidence calls into question standard RBC models in which a positive technology shock leads to a rise in hours. In this paper, we estimate and test a standard RBC model using Indirect Inference on impulse responses of hours worked after technology and non-technology shocks. We find that this model is not rejected by the data and is able to produce impulse responses in SVAR from simulated data similar to impulse responses in SVAR from actual data. Moreover, technology shocks represent the main contribution to the variance of the business cycle component of output under the estimated DSGE model. Our results suggest that we do not necessarily need DSGE models with a fall in hours to reproduce the results deriving from SVAR models.

Martial Dupaigne, Patrick Fève and Julien Matheron
June 2005

Classification JEL : E24, E32.

Keywords : SVARs, Long--Run Restrictions, RBC models, Indirect Inference.