Working Paper Series no. 357: Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries

Abstract

The surge in capital inflows towards emerging countries after 2009 has revived the debate about capital controls. This paper analyzes some of the international implications of restrictions on capital inflows. Focusing on a sample of Latin-American countries, we use detailed balance of payments data and higher frequency data on portfolio bond and equity flows to investigate the potential spillover effects that capital controls imposed in one country may have on neighboring economies. Using various econometric approaches, we find that a rise in the Brazilian tax on portfolio bond inflows has been affecting other Latin-American economies through significant surges in portfolio funds invested either in fixed income or equity securities. The effect is usually short lasting and followed by rapid reductions in those inflows. Yet it can be large. According to our estimates, the increase in the Brazilian tax on portfolio bond inflows may account for the entire surge in bond inflows to Mexico between September and October 2010.
 
Frederic Lambert, Julio Ramos-Tallada and Cyril Rebillard
December 2011

Classification JEL : F32, F33, F42

Keywords : capital flows, capital controls, spillovers, Latin America, VAR