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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.


Publication Working Paper Series no. 702:
Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models

We propose a simple risk-adjusted linear approximation to solve a large class of dynamic models with time-varying and non-Gaussian risk. Our approach generalizes lognormal affine approximations commonly used in the macro-finance literature and can be...

By Lopez Pierlauro, Lopez-Salido David, Vazquez-Grande Francisco
  • Published on 12/06/2018
  • 42 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.48 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 701:
Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position

This paper aims at estimating the impact of the recent Asset Purchase Programs implemented by the ECB - known as Quantitative easing (QE) - on external assets and liabilities recorded in one economy’s International Investment Position (IIP). Our...

By Cezar Rafaël, Silvestrini Maéva
  • Published on 11/23/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (2.35 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 700:
Monetary Rules, Determinacy and Limited Enforcement

This paper investigates the ability of monetary policy rules to coordinate private agents' expectations when the enforcement of rules is limited. We show that limited enforcement precludes diverging inflation paths ensuring that nominal variables...

By Barthélemy Jean, Mengus Eric
  • Published on 11/21/2018
  • 48 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (658.12 KB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 699:
Taxation of Savings and Portfolio Choices of French Households

France is the European country in which, together with the United Kingdom, the taxation of saving is highest (6% of GDP in 2016, against on average 3.8% in the European Union and 3.5% in the euro area). This situation is evaluated with regard to the...

  • Published on 11/20/2018
  • 16 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (1.83 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 698:
Flight-to-safety and the Credit Crunch: A new history of the banking crisis in France during the Great Depression

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale and consequences of the French banking crises of 1930–1931 were never assessed quantitatively due to lack of data in the absence of banking regulation. Using a new dataset of...

By Baubeau Patrice, Monnet Eric, Riva Angelo, Ungaro Stefano
  • Published on 11/16/2018
  • 59 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.02 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 697:
Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure

This paper evaluates and compares the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the corporate debt structure in the United States. It does so by using a vector autoregression in which policy shocks are identified through high...

  • Published on 10/17/2018
  • 34 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (644.56 KB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 696:
The Inverted-U Relationship Between Credit Access and Productivity Growth

In this paper, Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Gilbert Cette, Rémy Lecat & Hélène Maghin identify two counteracting effects of credit access on productivity growth: on the one hand, better access to credit makes it easier for entrepreneurs to...

By Aghion Philippe, Bergeaud Antonin, Cette Gilbert, Lecat Rémy, Maghin Hélène
  • Published on 10/15/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (834.42 KB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 695:
Does FDI crowd out domestic investment in transition countries?

As a capital flow, foreign direct investment (FDI) is often expected to act as a complement to domestic savings, thus facilitating the financing of local investment projects. While FDI can directly add to the existing capital stock, it can also...

  • Published on 09/17/2018
  • 39 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (773.25 KB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 694:
Monetary Policy and Long-Run Systemic Risk-Taking

As an extension to the literature on the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, this paper studies the existence of a systemic risk-taking channel (SRTC) in the Eurozone, through an original macroeconomic perspective based on causality measures....

By Colletaz Gilbert, Levieuge Grégory, Popescu Alexandra
  • Published on 09/14/2018
  • 45 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (678.24 KB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 693:
Inefficient Short-Time Work

This paper shows that the reforms which expanded short-time work in France after the great 2008-2009 recession were largely to the benefit of large firms which are recurrent short-time work users. Pierre Cahuc and Sandra Nevoux argue that this...

By Cahuc Pierre, Nevoux Sandra
  • Published on 09/11/2018
  • 32 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (440.39 KB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 692:
When Short-Time Work Works

Short-time work programs were revived by the Great Recession. To understand their operating mechanisms, Pierre Cahuc, Francis Kramarz & Sandra Nevoux first provide a model showing that short-time work may save jobs in firms hit by strong negative...

By Cahuc Pierre, Kramarz Francis, Nevoux Sandra
  • Published on 09/10/2018
  • 67 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (698.99 KB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 691:
External Credit Ratings and Bank Lending

Christophe Cahn, Mattia Girotti and Federica Salvadè study how third-party rating information influences firms' access to bank financing and real outcomes. They exploit a refinement in the rating scale that occurred in France in 2004. The new...

By Cahn Christophe, Girotti Mattia, Salvadè Frederica
  • Published on 08/28/2018
  • 41 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (628.44 KB)