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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 689:
International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Evidence from France and Italy

In this paper Julia Schmidt, Marianna Caccavaio, Luisa Carpinelli and Giuseppe Marinelli provide empirical evidence on the impact of US and UK monetary policy changes on credit supply of banks operating in Italy and France over the period 2000-2015,...

By Schmidt Julia, Caccavaio Marianna, Carpinelli Luisa, Marinelli Giuseppe
  • Published on 08/13/2018
  • 32 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (593.17 KB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 688:
Estimating Non-Linear DSGEs with the Approximate Bayesian Computation: an application to the Zero Lower Bound

Estimation of non-linear DSGE models is still very limited due to high computational costs and identification issues arising from the non-linear solution of the models. Besides, the use of small sample amplifies those issues. Valerio Scalone advocates...

  • Published on 08/10/2018
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1001.84 KB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 687:
Bad Sovereign or Bad Balance Sheets? Euro Interbank Market Fragmentation and Monetary Policy, 2011-2015

Silvia Gabrieli and Claire Labonne measure the relative role of sovereign-dependence risk and balance sheet (credit) risk in euro area interbank market fragmentation from 2011 to 2015. They combine bank-to-bank loan data with detailed supervisory...

By Gabrieli Silvia, Labonne Claire
  • Published on 08/01/2018
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.09 MB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 686:
Measuring “Indirect” Investments in ICT in OECD Countries

ICT components, such as microprocessors, may be embodied in other capital goods not recorded as ICT in National Accounts. Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez, Giorgio Presidente and Vincenzo Spiezia name ‘indirect ICT investment’ the value of embodied ICT...

By Cette Gilbert, Lopez Jimmy, Presidente Giorgio, Spiezia Vincenzo
  • Published on 07/30/2018
  • 15 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (903.29 KB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 685:
Classifying Patents Based on their Semantic Content

In this paper, Antonin Bergeaud, Yoann Potiron and Juste Raimbault extend some usual techniques of classification resulting from a large-scale data-mining and network approach. This new technology, which in particular is designed to be suitable to big...

By Bergeaud Antonin, Potiron Yoann, Raimbault Juste
  • Published on 07/11/2018
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (8.73 MB)

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 684:
An Experimental Analysis Of The Effect Of Quantitative Easing

In this paper Adrian Penalver, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Eizo Akiyama, Yukihiko Funaki and Ryuichiro Ishikawa report the results of a repeated experiment in which a central bank buys bonds for cash in a quantitative easing (QE) operation in an otherwise...

By Penalver Adrian, Hanaki Nobuyuki, Akiyama Eizo, Funaki Yukihiko, Ishikawa Ryuichiro
  • Published on 06/11/2018
  • 34 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.94 MB)

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 683:
Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers

Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or...

By Bordo Michael D., Istrefi Klodiana
  • Published on 06/08/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (1.23 MB)

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 682:
Shocks vs Menu Costs: Patterns of Price Rigidity in an Estimated Multi-Sector Menu-Cost Model

Relying on a menu-cost model augmented with a time-dependent (Calvo) component, Erwan Gautier and Hervé Le Bihan investigate the structural sources of cross-sectoral heterogeneity in patterns of price setting. They use a large micro dataset of French...

  • Published on 05/24/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (927.68 KB)

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 681:
Non-base wage components as a source of wage adaptability to shocks: Evidence from European firms, 2010-2013

Jan Babecký, Clémence Berson, Ludmila Fadejeva, Ana Lamo, Petra Marotzke, Fernando Martins and Pawel Strzelecki provide evidence on the role of non-base wage components as a channel for firms to adjust labour costs in the event of adverse shocks. They...

By Babecký Jan, Berson Clémence, Fadejeva Ludmila, Marotzke Petra, Martins Fernando, Lamo Ana, Strzelecki Pawel
  • Published on 05/18/2018
  • 23 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.04 MB)

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 680:
‘New Normal’ or ‘New Orthodoxy’? Elements of a Central Banking Framework for the After-Crisis

Christian Pfister and Natacha Valla contrast two different approaches to central banking in the aftermath of the crisis. In the first one, labelled ‘New Normal’, the monetary policy strategy is broadened to encompass such objectives as financial...

By Pfister Christian, Valla Natacha
  • Published on 05/11/2018
  • 27 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (356.23 KB)

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 679:
Countercyclical School Attainment and Intergenerational Mobility

Andreu Arenas & Clément Malgouyres study how economic conditions at the time of choosing post-compulsory education affect intergenerational mobility. Exploiting local variation in birthplace unemployment rate at age 16 across 23 cohorts in France,...

By Malgouyres Clément, Arenas Andreu
  • Published on 05/04/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (737.55 KB)

April

Publication Working Paper Series no. 678:
The Impact of Exports on Innovation: Theory and Evidence

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Matthieu Lequien and Marc J. Melitz investigate the effect of export shocks on innovation. On the one hand a positive shock increases market size and therefore innovation incentives for all firms. On the other hand it...

By Aghion Philippe, Bergeaud Antonin, Lequien Matthieu, Melitz Marc J.
  • Published on 04/27/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (844.73 KB)