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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 831:
Competition and agency problems within banks: Evidence from insider lending

This paper studies whether greater competition can mitigate agency problems within banks. We measure the intensity of the agency conflict within a bank by the volume of loans that the bank lends to its insiders (e.g., executives). We first check that...

By Girotti Mattia, Salvadè Federica
  • Published on 09/17/2021
  • 62 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.18 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 830:
Risk-to-Buffer: Setting Cyclical and Structural Capital Buffers through Banks Stress Tests

In this work we present the Risk-to-Buffer: a new framework to jointly calibrate cyclical and structural capital buffers, based on the integration of a non-linear macroeconomic model with a Stress test model. The macroeconomic model generates scenarios...

  • Published on 09/08/2021
  • 43 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (2.24 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 829:
Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies

This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the...

  • Published on 09/06/2021
  • 73 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.45 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 828:
Downward Interest Rate Rigidity

Empirical evidence suggests that bank lending rates are downward rigid: banks tend to adjust their rates more slowly and less completely to short-term market rates decreases than to increases. We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of this...

  • Published on 09/03/2021
  • 47 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.43 MB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 827:
Web Scraping Housing Prices in Real-time: the Covid-19 Crisis in the UK

While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from...

By Bricongne Jean-Charles, Meunier Baptiste, Pouget Sylvain
  • Published on 08/31/2021
  • 42 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.42 MB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 826:
A “Silent Spring” for the Financial System? Exploring Biodiversity-Related Financial Risks in France

This paper contributes to an emerging literature aimed at uncovering the linkages between biodiversity loss and financial instability, by exploring biodiversity-related financial risks (BRFR) in France. We first build on previous studies and propose an...

By Svartzman Romain, Espagne Etienne, Gauthey Julien, Hadji-Lazaro Paul, Salin Mathilde, Allen Thomas, Berger Joshua, Calas Julien, Godin Antoine, Vallier Antoine
  • Published on 08/27/2021
  • 95 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.69 MB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 825:
The Case for a Positive Euro Area Inflation Target: Evidence from France, Germany and Italy

Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends...

By Klaus Adam, Gautier Erwan, Santoro Sergio, Weber Henning
  • Published on 08/05/2021
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (921.4 KB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 824:
What Individual Data Tells us about the Covid-19 Impact on Corporate Liquidity in 2020

Using rich granular data for over 645 000 French firms in 2020, this paper builds a micro-simulation model to assess the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate liquidity. Going beyond the aggregate picture, we document that while net debt has been...

By Bureau Benjamin, Duquerroy Anne, Giorgi Julien, Lé Mathias, Scott Suzanne, Vinas Frédéric
  • Published on 07/20/2021
  • 56 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.74 MB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 823:
Corporate activity in France amid the Covid-19 crisis. A granular data analysis.

Taking advantage of detailed firm-level data on VAT returns, we estimate the monthly impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the turnover of more than 645,000 French firms. Our approach, based on a micro-simulation model, is innovative in a triple way....

By Bureau Benjamin, Duquerroy Anne, Giorgi Julien, Lé Mathias, Scott Suzanne, Vinas Frédéric
  • Published on 07/20/2021
  • 94 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (11.52 MB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 822:
Climate Change in Developing Countries: Global Warming Effects, Transmission Channels and Adaptation Policies

Using panel data covering 126 low- and middle-income countries over 1960-2017, we find that sustained positive temperature deviations from their historical norms have a non-linear negative effect on economic growth and growth per capita. A sustained 1...

  • Published on 07/15/2021
  • 68 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (5.03 MB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 821:
Enrichment of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey: lessons from textual analysis of business leaders’ comments

In the context of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey, this document presents the main findings of the textual analysis of business leaders’ comments. First, the richness of these data is illustrated via an elementary sentiment index and the...

By Gerardin Mathilde, Ranvier Martial
  • Published on 07/02/2021
  • 59 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (2.55 MB)

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 820:
Inflation tolerance ranges in the New Keynesian model

A number of central banks in advanced countries use ranges, or bands, around their inflation target to formulate their monetary policy strategy. The adoption of such ranges has been proposed by some policymakers in the context of the Fed and the ECB...

  • Published on 06/29/2021
  • 35 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.17 MB)