You are here

Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

April

Publication Working Paper Series no. 759:
Long-term growth impact of climate change and policies: the Advanced Climate Change Long-term (ACCL) scenario building model

This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and...

  • Published on 04/03/2020
  • 34 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.6 MB)

March

Publication Working Paper Series no. 758:
A Pitfall of Cautiousness in Monetary Policy

Central banks are often reluctant to take immediate or forceful actions in the face of new information on the economic outlook. To rationalize this cautious approach, Brainard’s attenuation principle is often invoked: when a policy-maker is unsure of...

  • Published on 03/25/2020
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.08 MB)

March

Publication Working Paper Series no. 757:
Stablecoins: A Brave New World?

At the root of the notion of stablecoin (SC) lies a desire to reconcile two different worlds: that of legal currency, whose essential attributes are hierarchical order, the vocation to uniqueness and stability of the purchasing power, and that of...

By Melachrinos Anastasia, Pfister Christian
  • Published on 03/06/2020
  • 22 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.03 MB)

February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 756:
Job-to-Job Flows and Wage Dynamics in France and Italy

Some recent literature about the U.S. shows that wage dynamics are more influenced by job-to-job flows than by flows into or out of employment. In this paper, we evaluate whether this result holds also for France and Italy, characterized by a different...

By Berson Clémence, De Philippis Marta, Viviano Eliana
  • Published on 02/25/2020
  • 38 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.5 MB)

February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 755:
Job Polarization, Skill Mismatch and the Great Recession

This paper shows that job polarization has a persistent negative effect on employment opportunities, labor mobility and skill-to-job match quality for mid/low-skilled workers, in particular during downturns. I introduce a model generating an endogenous...

By Zago Riccardo
  • Published on 02/17/2020
  • 69 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (7.75 MB)

February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 754:
Market Making and Proprietary Trading in the US Corporate Bond Market

I study broker-dealers' trading activity in the US corporate bond market. I find evidence of broker-dealer market making when customers both buy and sell a bond in a day, which happens half of the time: as predicted by market making theories with...

By Dastarac Hugues
  • Published on 02/07/2020
  • EN
  • PDF (3.15 MB)

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 753:
Le Pont de Londres: interactions between monetary and prudential policies in cross-border lending

We examine how euro area (EA) monetary policy and recipient-country prudential policy interact to influence cross-border lending of French banks. We find that monetary spillovers via cross-border lending can be partially offset by prudential measures...

By Bussière Matthieu, Hills Robert, Lloyd Simon, Meunier Baptiste, Pedrono Justine, Reinhardt Dennis, Sowerbutts Rhiannon
  • Published on 01/29/2020
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.58 MB)

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 752:
Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation

The paper re-investigates the effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and inflation. In contrast with some previous puzzling results, we find that an increase in government spending appreciates the real exchange rate and is...

By Ferrara Laurent, Metelli Luca, Natoli Filippo, Siena Daniele
  • Published on 01/24/2020
  • 21 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.38 MB)

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 751:
Wealth effect on consumption during the sovereign debt crisis: Households heterogeneity in the Euro area

This paper studies the heterogeneity of the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth (MPC) both across and within countries. We estimate the MPC based on a cross-country harmonized household level dataset which combines surveys on wealth, income...

By Garbinti Bertrand, Lamarche Pierre, Lecanu Charlélie, Savignac Frédérique
  • Published on 01/23/2020
  • 71 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.1 MB)

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 750:
Basic Model Elasticities of the Macroeconomic Model for France of the Banque de France (FR-BDF)

This paper presents a set of Basic Model Elasticities (BMEs) of the Banque de France's new macroeconomic model for France, FR-BDF. A detailed description of the model is provided in Lemoine et al (2019) and this "BMEs workbook" is...

  • Published on 01/21/2020
  • 46 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.83 MB)

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 749:
Trade, Productivity and (Mis)allocation

We examine the gains from globalization in the presence of firm heterogeneity and potential resource misallocation. We show theoretically that without distortions, bilateral and export liberalizations increase aggregate welfare and productivity, while...

By Berthou Antoine, Chung John Jong Hyun, Manova Kalina, Sandoz-dit-Bragard Charlotte
  • Published on 01/17/2020
  • 60 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.7 MB)

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 748:
A Plucking Model of Business Cycles

In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a ``natural rate'' and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view–labeled the ``plucking...

By Dupraz Stéphane, Nakamura Emi, Steinsson Jón
  • Published on 01/16/2020
  • 61 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.28 MB)