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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 738:
Pensions and Household Savings: Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Europe

We address the question of whether the heterogeneity in savings is partly due to differences in pension wealth across individuals and across countries, using a European harmonised wealth survey (HFCS) combined with estimates of pension wealth (OECD)....

By D'Addio Anna, Roger Muriel, Savignac Frédérique
  • Published on 11/08/2019
  • 56 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (2.77 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 737:
Information Technology and Returns to Scale

This paper investigates the role of IT in shaping recent trends in market concentration, factor income shares, and market competition. Relying on a novel dataset on hardware and software investments in the universe of French firms, we document a robust...

By Lashkari Danial, Bauer Arthur, Boussard Jocelyn
  • Published on 11/07/2019
  • 85 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.73 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 736:
The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France

This paper presents the new model for France of the Banque de France (FR-BDF), as well as its key implications for the analysis of monetary policy transmission in France. Relative to our former model, this new semi-structural model has been improved...

By Lemoine Matthieu, Turunen Harri, Chahad Mohammed, Lepetit Antoine, Zhutova Anastasia, Aldama Pierre, Clerc Pierrick, Laffargue Jean-Pierre
  • Published on 10/31/2019
  • 143 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.89 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 735:
The Real Effects of Checks and Balances: Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment

This article explores the economic effects of checks and balances on corporate investment and employment. I use U.S. gubernatorial election results from 1978 to 2010 as a source of exogenous variation in whether the party controls both the executive...

  • Published on 10/28/2019
  • 77 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.98 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 734:
The Circular Relationship Between Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates

In most advanced economies, both real interest rates and productivity growth have decreased since the early 1990s. In this paper, we explore the mechanism whereby a circular relationship links these two quantities. While productivity is a key driver of...

  • Published on 10/24/2019
  • 39 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.27 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 733:
Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area

We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR, using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts...

By Ganics Gergely, Odendahl Florens
  • Published on 10/21/2019
  • 65 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.13 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 732:
Central Bank Digital Currency: One, Two or None?

This paper considers the motives, modalities, and possible consequences of central bank digital currency (CBDC) issuance. It starts by drawing a distinction between a wholesale CBDC (WCBDC), accessible only to financial intermediaries, and a retail...

  • Published on 10/15/2019
  • 15 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.77 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 731:
How Do Short-term Financial Constraints Affect SMEs’ Long-Term Investment: Evidence from the Working Capital Channel

This paper investigates the real effects of short-term financial constraints in the light of the working capital channel: cash credit constraints may force SMEs to forgo investment opportunities in order to finance their working capital needs. Building...

  • Published on 10/10/2019
  • 53 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.18 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 730:
Secured and Unsecured Interbank Markets: Monetary Policy, Substitution and the Cost of Collateral

We study the substitution between secured and unsecured interbank markets. Banks are competitive and subject to reserve requirements in a corridor rate system with deposit and lending facilities. Banks face counterparty risk in the unsecured market and...

By Thibaut Piquard, Salakhova Dilyara
  • Published on 09/20/2019
  • 44 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.46 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 729:
No double standards: quantifying the impact of standard harmonization on trade

Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the...

By Schmidt Julia, Steingress Walter
  • Published on 09/05/2019
  • 68 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.33 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 728:
French Households’ Portfolio: The Financial Almost Ideal Demand System Appraisal

Over the last decades, the composition of financial wealth of French households has dramatically changed. We seek explanatory factors for these changes by estimating an extended version of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) model applied to French households...

By Avouyi-Dovi Sanvi, Pfister Christian, Sédillot Franck
  • Published on 09/04/2019
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.19 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 727:
Labor Shares in Some Advanced Economies

We study the joint impact of three measurement issues in the empirical literature on the labor share: (i) start and end periods for the empirical analysis; (ii) accounting for self-employment; and (iii) accounting for residential real estate income....

By Cette Gilbert, Koehl Lorraine, Philippon Thomas
  • Published on 09/03/2019
  • EN
  • PDF (2.16 MB)