Working Paper Series no. 100: The Challenges of the "New Economy" for Monetary Policy

Abstract

The advent and spread of information and communication technologies (ICTs) increase potential output growth . It is uncertain to what extent and for how long they do so. We use the term "new economy" (NE) to describe the acceleration in potential output growth and the attendant and partly temporary slowdown in inflation. Assessing the NE is however a complicated and delicate task. The impact of the NE on the conduct of monetary policy may differ depending on the time scale. In a long-run perspective, the central bank could capitalise on the NE to set lower inflation targets. In the short to medium term, central banks should be cautious when identifying changing patterns in potential output growth, as temporary errors in appreciation may have an asymmetrical impact on economic stability: the production instability that could result from central banks mistakenly perceiving the advent of a NE would be greater than that generated by the failure to recognise a genuine rise in potential output growth.

Gilbert Cette and Christian Pfister
January 2003

Classification JEL : D8 ; E3 ; E4 ; E5.

Keywords : Monetary policy, productivity, new economy, uncertainty, measurement issues.