The objective of this paper is to assess the relevance and the predictive content of the indicators stemming from the ten-year-old quarterly Bank Lending Survey (BLS) on credit distribution. First, we validate the coherence of the BLS indicators by cross-checking indicators that are supposed to deliver similar information, and by comparing them to a broad set of actual macroeconomic and financial variables. Second, econometric tests reveal that the demand-side indicators of the BLS, but not the supply-side ones, are particularly relevant for explaining and forecasting loans to non-financial companies in France.
Classification JEL : E51, E47, C22
Keywords : Bank Lending Survey, Credit demand, Credit supply, Forecasts
Updated on: 06/12/2018 10:56