Working Paper Series no. 259: Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial.

Abstract

Recent macroeconomic evolutions during the years 2008 and 2009 have pointed out the impact of financial markets on economic activity. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the ability of a set of financial variables to forecast recessions in the euro area by using a non-linear binary response model associated with information combination. Especially, we focus on a time-varying probit model whose parameters evolve according to a Markov chain. For various forecast horizons, we provide a readable and leading signal of recession by combining information according to two combining schemes over the sample 1970-2006. First we average recession probabilities and second we linearly combine variables through a dynamic factor model in order to estimate an innovative factor-augmented probit model. Out-of-sample results over the period 2007-2008 show that financial variables would have been helpful in predicting a recession signal as September 2007, that is around six months before the effective start of the 2008-2009 recession in the euro area.

Christophe Bellégo and Laurent Ferrara
November 2009

Classification JEL : C53, E32, E44.

Keywords : Macroeconomic forecasting, Business cycles, Turning points, Financial markets, Non-linear time series, Combining forecasts.