Working Paper Series no. 219: A Two-Pillar DSGE Monetary Policy Model for the Euro Area.

Abstract

Whereas the bulk of the literature on DSGE models provides a rationale for inflation targeting strategies, there is no model doing such a job for the strategy implemented for almost ten years now by the Eurosystem and known as the "two-pillar monetary policy strategy". We try to address this issue by developing a small "two-pillar" DSGE model for the euro area. In this paper: 1) we allow real balances to appear both in the IS and Phillips curves; 2) we find some evidence that money plays a non-trivial role in explaining the euro area business cycle; 3) this provides a rationale for the central bank (the European Central Bank) to factor in monetary developments, by exploiting the long-run relationship between money growth and inflation, eventually accounting for structural shifts in velocity; 4) we found some evidence that the ECB has reacted systematically to a filtered measure of money growth and weaker evidence it has reacted more aggressively during high money growth periods ("excess liquidity").

Jean Barthélemy, Laurent Clerc and Magali Marx
July 2008

Classification JEL : E52, E58.

Keywords : Monetary policy, Monetary aggregates, Monetary Policy Rules, Non-linearity, ECB