Working Paper Series no. 567: On the coherence and the predictive content of the French Bank Lending Survey’s indicators (in French)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the relevance and the predictive content of the indicators stemming from the ten-year-old quarterly Bank Lending Survey (BLS) on credit distribution. First, we validate the coherence of the BLS indicators by cross-checking indicators that are supposed to deliver similar information, and by comparing them to a broad set of actual macroeconomic and financial variables. Second, econometric tests reveal that the demand-side indicators of the BLS, but not the supply-side ones, are particularly relevant for explaining and forecasting loans to non-financial companies in France.

Grégory LEVIEUGE
August 2015

Classification JEL : E51, E47, C22

Keywords : Bank Lending Survey, Credit demand, Credit supply, Forecasts