Working Paper Series no. 456: Regime Switching and Bond Pricing

Abstract

This article proposes an overview of the usefulness of the regime switching approach for building various kinds of bond pricing models and of the roles played by the regimes in these models. Both default-free and defaultable bonds are considered. The regimes can be used to capture stochastic drifts and/or volatilities, to represent discrete target rates, to incorporate business cycles or crises, to introduce contagion, to reproduce zero lower bound spells, or to evaluate the impact of standard or nonstandard monetary policies. From a technical point of view, we stress the key role of Markov chains, Compound Autoregressive (Car) processes, Regime Switching Car processes and multihorizon Laplace transforms.

Christian Gouriéroux, Alain Monfort, Fulvio Pegoraro and Jean-Paul Renne
October 2013

Classification JEL : E43, G12.

Keywords : term structure, regime switching, affine models, car process, multi-horizon Laplace transform, contagion, default risk, monetary policy.