Working Paper Series no. 527: An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia

Abstract

This paper uses a risk-averse formulation of the uncovered interest rate parity to determine exchange rates through interest rate differentials, and ultimately extract currency risk premia. The method proposed consists of developing an affine Arbitrage-Free class of dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure models with stochastic volatility to obtain the domestic and foreign discount rate variations, which in turn are used to derive a representation of exchange rate depreciations. No-arbitrage restrictions allow to endogenously capturing currency risk premia. Empirical findings suggest that estimated currency risk premia are able to account for the forward premium puzzle and their properties are examined.

Sarah Mouabbi
December 2014

Classification JEL : E43, F31, G15

Keywords : term structure of interest rates; affine; exchange rates; risk premia