Economic projections Macroeconomic projections - December 2018

▪ In a highly uncertain environment, French GDP should grow by around 1.5% per year in the period 2018-21, continuing to exceed potential and leading to a gradual fall in the unemployment rate.

▪ After making contrasting contributions between 2016 and 2018, external trade should have a broadly neutral impact on growth over the projection horizon.

▪ Domestic demand should continue to grow at a robust pace, with household consumption benefiting from stronger purchasing power in 2019 (see developments and boxes below).

▪ After the peak seen in the summer of 2018, headline HICP inflation should average 2.1% for the year, largely on the back of energy prices. It should then fluctuate around 1.6-1.7% between 2019 and 2021. Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to increase gradually to 1.6% in 2021 as unemployment falls.

These projections incorporate the quarterly national accounts published by Insee on 30 October, which cover the period up to the third quarter of 2018. They also factor in a rise of 0.2% in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018, which was confirmed by the MIBA (Monthly Index of Business Activity) published on 10 December. The projections are based on the technical and international environment assumptions used in the Eurosystem December projection exercise (see Table A2 in the appendix in the PDF version of the document), for which the cut-off date is 21 November, in particular regarding oil prices. They also take into account the government measures announced up to the draft 2019 budget law, the majority of which will take effect in 2019, and some in 2020 (see below). They do not, however, incorporate the measures announced by the President of the Republic and the government after 28 November, which are liable to affect the evolution of consumer prices, purchasing power and the government deficit.

French growth should remain above its estimated potential

After a weak start to 2018, French economic growth gathered pace in the third quarter of the year. However, recent economic indicators suggest it should slow again temporarily in the last three months of the year, notably as a result of the disruption to activity caused by the gilet jaunes (yellow vest) protests. In annual average terms, GDP is expected to expand by 1.5% in 2018 after 2.3% growth in 2017. Beyond these quarterly fluctuations, however, the outlook remains favourable, and the expansion should settle at a quarterly rate of around 0.4% as of the start of 2019, resulting in annual average growth of 1.5% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020 (see Chart 1). GDP growth should thus exceed our estimate for potential growth (around 1.3%), leading to a lasting closure of the output gap at end-2019. As the economic cycle progresses, GDP growth tends naturally to come back towards potential, and is thus projected to ease to 1.4% in 2021. In the medium term, the reforms underway – particularly if they are continued – could translate into a bigger drop in structural unemployment and a stronger boost to growth between now and 2021.

The growth outlook for 2018-20 is little changed compared with our September projections. The quarterly national accounts published by Insee in the third quarter of 2018 proved in line with our expectations. The downward revision to our growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 stems essentially from the temporarily less favourable outlook for the fourth quarter of 2018.

The technical and international environment assumptions are similar to those underlying the September projections, although they are now subject to a downside risk (see below). Growth in world demand is expected to weaken in 2018-21 after the sustained pace seen in 2017, and the outlook remains overshadowed by significant global uncertainty. France should nonetheless benefit from the resilience of the European economy: demand from euro area trading partners is expected to rebound sharply in 2019 after the soft patch seen in 2018, and should remain dynamic thereafter. The recent slight depreciation in the euro nominal effective exchange rate has not been sufficient to offset the strong appreciation since 2017, but should still give something of a boost to French competitiveness. Above all, after the recent sharp retreat, oil prices are now slightly below the levels underlying our September projections, which is more positive for the French economy.

After the recent peak, headline inflation should moderate up to mid-2019 and then hover around 1.7% in 2020-21

After peaking at 2.6% in July and August 2018, largely on the back of steep energy price rises and higher tobacco and energy taxes, inflation as measured by the annual change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) should moderate in the run-up to autumn 2019. It should then strengthen again gradually, fluctuating around 1.7% in 2020 and 2021 (see Chart 2).

Inflation excluding energy and food has already started to improve very gradually since the start of the year (averaging 0.9% in 2018 after the very low level of 0.6% in 2017), buoyed in particular by higher industrial goods prices. Services inflation should remain fairly weak in 2018, reflecting declines in social housing rents and telecommunications prices, and one-off reductions in transport prices, and despite rises in other services components. Inflation excluding energy and food should gradually see stronger growth (to 1.3% in 2019, 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021), linked to falling unemployment and accelerating wages. This should help to balance out the composition of headline inflation, in a context of more moderate energy price rises after the declines seen at the end of 2018 and start of 2019.

 

Household consumption should remain robust, buoyed by gains in purchasing power

After three quarters of subdued growth, household consumption rebounded in the third quarter of 2018, in line with expectations. Household disposable income was temporarily squeezed at the start of the year by hikes in energy and tobacco taxes and a rise in the CSG (general social security contribution). Conversely, at the end of the year, cuts to housing tax and employee social security contributions coupled with lower energy prices should lend strong support to purchasing power. Household purchasing power is therefore seen rising significantly over the year, adding 1.4% in annual average terms. Purchasing power should then increase more sharply in 2019 (1.7% growth), before losing momentum gradually in 2020 and 2021 (see Box 1, “Changes in purchasing power in France”).

Recent labour market data show that employment growth slowed as of the second quarter of 2018. The policy of cuts to labour costs had a particularly strong impact in 2016 and 2017, with the result that private sector employment should now continue rising, but at a weaker pace than in previous years (see Box 2, “Job creation and unemployment”). 2018 should still see solid employment growth in annual average terms, thanks to the carry-over effect at the start of the year. The cuts to subsidised jobs in the 2019 draft budget law are expected to weigh heavily on public sector employment at the end of 2018 and start of 2019, and total employment is expected to rise by just 118,000 in annual average terms in 2019, compared with growth of 236,000 in 2018. It should then regain momentum over the rest of the projection horizon. Based on Insee’s demographic forecasts, the predicted pace of jobs growth should allow the unemployment rate to continue falling, to an expected 8.1% for France and the overseas departments at end-2021, and to just under 8% for metropolitan France.

The higher gains in household purchasing power are expected to push household consumption growth up to 1.4% in 2019, and it should then remain at this pace over the rest of the projection horizon. This trend should be accompanied by a slight rise in the saving ratio, to an average of 14.8% in 2021 compared with 14.6% in 2018. (See box entitled “The composition of household income, the household saving ratio and household consumption”, in the September 2018 macroeconomic projections).

Trends in business investment and exports are expected to be favourable

Business investment is projected to remain buoyant, rising faster than economic activity, despite moderating gradually. This should translate into a continued increase in the investment ratio, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years.

In contrast, after two years of strong growth, household investment slowed markedly as of the first quarter of 2018. Recent data on home sales and housing starts suggest that the decline which began in the third quarter should continue until mid-2019. Thereafter, household investment should grow at a pace more in line with purchasing power.

External trade is expected to show contrasting trends in the first and second half of 2018. After a sharp rebound in 2017, export growth stagnated in the first six months of the year, reflecting a softening of intra-euro area demand for French goods and services. The end of the year should see a pick-up in momentum with the delivery of the cruise ship Celebrity Edge at end-October and increased deliveries in the aeronautical sector, which are traditionally high at the end of the year. Thereafter, export growth will largely depend on levels of foreign demand for French goods and services, and should accelerate slightly in 2020 compared with 2019, contributing to the pick-up in activity. Imports, on the other hand, proved especially weak up to the third quarter of 2018, and are expected to remain subdued over the full year. The slowdown should nonetheless be offset on the supply-side by significant destocking. As a result, the strong positive contribution of net trade to growth in 2018 (0.5 percentage point) is expected to be outweighed in large part by a marked negative contribution from inventories (-0.4 percentage point). Import growth should then return to a more usual pace in subsequent quarters, which explains the slight moderation in activity in 2019, despite the strength of domestic demand and exports (see Chart 3).

The government deficit and debt trajectories are subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly in 2019

In a continuing favourable economic and financial environment (see Box 3, “The outlook for the government debt burden”), the government deficit is expected to fall slightly from 2.7% of GDP in 2017 to 2.6% of GDP in 2018. Indeed, it would have narrowed even further, to 2.4% of GDP, without the one-off repayment of the dividend tax which adds 0.2 percentage point to the deficit in 2018.

Before the recent government announcements (made after 28 November and therefore not included in these projections) the government deficit was expected to increase temporarily to 2.9% of GDP in 2019 as a result of the transformation of the Tax Credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE) into a permanent cut in employers’ social security contributions, which should weigh by 0.9 percentage point of GDP. Excluding this impact, the deficit was estimated at 2.0% of GDP for 2019 (from 2019 onwards, the new French institution, France Compétences, is treated as a new general government body pending its classification as such by Insee. Its creation leads to similar-sized increases in government spending on the one hand, and in taxes and social security contributions on the other - around 0.3 percentage point of GDP - as of 2019. Consequently, it has no impact on the government’s deficit or debt).

In 2018, the aggregate tax-to-GDP ratio (tax and social security receipts as a percentage of GDP) should fall by 0.4 percentage point to 44.9% (vs. 45.3% in 2017), owing to the tax cuts introduced in the last budget (reduction of housing tax, transformation of the wealth tax into a tax on real estate assets and introduction of a flat tax on capital income). Excluding temporary measures, (we have stripped out the impact of the significant temporary measures - snapback in 2018 after the recapitalisation of Areva and Orano in 2017, 2017/2018 time profile of the repayment of the dividend tax - which make it difficult to evaluate the variation in government expenditure in 2018 versus 2017)  our projection is for government expenditure excluding tax credits to rise by 2.1% in nominal terms in 2018 and by 0.4% in real terms (adjusted for CPI excluding tobacco). The government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to inch upwards in 2018.

There are a number of major risks to this outlook

As in our September publication, the international environment poses significant risks to these projections (rise in protectionism, global geopolitical tensions, uncertainties over Brexit, commodity price volatility).

The uncertainty over the final terms of Brexit and discussions over Italy’s draft budget both pose a significant downside risk to the environment in Europe and thus to the region’s economic growth. In addition, new protectionist measures or a more marked slowdown in Chinese growth could weigh on foreign demand for euro area exports. Conversely, current projections for world growth, which factor in a continuation of the slowdown observed since the start of 2018, could underestimate trends in global trade, especially if the current trade tensions subside.

In France, the near-term risks are largely negative given the direction of current economic indicators and the possibility that the gilets jaunes crisis will have an even stronger impact on activity at the end of the year. Activity would nonetheless rebound in 2019 if the situation were to return to normal. In 2019 and 2020, households could potentially consume a larger share of the cuts to taxes and social security contributions, lending additional support to activity. The measures recently announced by the government should also support purchasing power and consumption. 

The risks to our inflation projection appear on the whole balanced. In the current context of high volatility, the future path of oil prices poses a first major risk, both on the upside and the downside. The oil price assumption used in these projections is constructed using the average price level in the ten days preceding the cut-off date for the technical assumptions. In the space of a month, from 18 October to 22 November, the price of a barrel of Brent crude varied by 10 euro. At a two-year horizon, a variation of this scale has a 0.4 percentage point impact on French inflation (for an estimation of the impact of changes in oil prices on euro area and French inflation, see BDF blog post)  and a 0.2 percentage point impact on economic activity. This stems from a direct impact on the energy component of inflation and an indirect impact on inflation excluding energy and food. Further abrupt variations of this size remain possible.

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Economic projections Macroeconomic projections - December 2018
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Updated on: 12/21/2018 12:20