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Rue de la Banque

The Rue de la Banque series is a collection of short, non-technical articles, in which Banque de France researchers sum up their work on a particular topic. Each article contains charts and a bibliography for those who want to explore the subject further.

These articles are now available in the Banque de France Bulletin in an "Economic Research" section as of the May-June 2019 issue.

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December

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 53:
Determinants of sovereign bond yields: the role of fiscal and external imbalances

The rise in sovereign bond yields observed in the so-called “periphery” euro area countries from 2008 onwards can potentially be attributed to significant and rising levels of external government liabilities coupled with already high levels of public...

By Ben Salem Malika, Castelletti-Font Barbara
  • Published on 12/13/2017
  • 5 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (834.84 KB)
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November

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 52:
Staying at zero with affine processes : an application to term structure modelling

The recent financial crises observed in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area have led their respective central banks to bring policy rates down to unprecedented low levels, with an associated dramatic drop of their yield curves....

By Monfort Alain, Pegoraro Fulvio, Renne Jean-Paul, Roussellet Guillaume
  • Published on 11/30/2017
  • 5 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (676.01 KB)
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November

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 51:
Winners and losers from globalisation : offshoring benefits skilled workers and hurts the less skilled

This Rue de la Banque, based on the exploitation of detailed data for the French manufacturing industry, argues that offshoring to low wage countries was a strong determinant of the labour market outcomes of low skilled workers in France during the...

By Carluccio Juan, Fadinger Harald, Fons-Rosen Christian, Cuñat Alejandro
  • Published on 11/15/2017
  • 4 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (580.27 KB)
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October

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 50:
Size-based regulations and firm growth: is small beautiful?

Most countries treat smaller firms more generously when it comes to business regulation or taxation, exempting them from some of the burdens on larger firms. In France for example, a large number of regulations – primarily from labour...

By Garicano Luis, Lelarge Claire, Van Reenen John
  • Published on 10/19/2017
  • EN
  • PDF (628.89 KB)
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October

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 49:
Why is the Interest Rate an Inverted Leading Indicator of Macroeconomic Activity in the United States?

The real interest rate at which US firms borrow funds to finance their investment and other expenses has two striking features. It is low when GDP is high (and vice versa) and it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity. Low interest...

By Pintus Patrick
  • Published on 10/09/2017
  • 5 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (891.33 KB)
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September

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 48:
Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis

We present a measure of subjective interest rate uncertainty and explore its effects on the economy for G7 countries and Spain, during the period 1993-2015. This measure is a summary of uncertainty among professional forecasters over the future level...

By Istrefi Klodiana, Mouabbi Sarah
  • Published on 09/19/2017
  • 6 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (757.63 KB)
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September

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 47:
The long-term cost of protectionism for education

The long-term costs of protectionism are difficult to evaluate as very few countries have switched back to this economic policy after a long period of free trade. One country that did make the move was France in 1892, when the Chamber of Deputies,...

By Bignon Vincent, Garcia-Peñalosa Cecilia
  • Published on 09/05/2017
  • EN
  • PDF (489.34 KB)
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July

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 46:
The difference in public spending in France and Germany

Public spending in 2015 represented 57% of GDP in France compared with 44% in Germany. The difference was only around five percentage points of GDP from 1996 to 2002. Since then, the slowdown in per capita GDP growth in France has not been accompanied...

By Aouriri Marie, Tournoux Héloïse
  • Published on 07/13/2017
  • EN
  • PDF (522.69 KB)
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June

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 45:
Globalisation and industry concentration: What are the consequences for inflation dynamics?

Since the mid-1980s, there has been a weakening of the correlation between inflation and output in advanced countries. Why? One of the prime suspects is globalisation. Aside from the well-known effects of lower wages abroad and cheaper imported goods,...

By Guilloux-Nefussi Sophie
  • Published on 06/29/2017
  • EN
  • PDF (504.21 KB)
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June

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 44:
Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty

The weakness in business investment in several advanced economies since the global financial crisis has prompted debate over the main drivers behind this trend and the possible policy responses, if any. This Rue de la Banque summarises an empirical...

By Bussière Matthieu, Ferrara Laurent, Milovich Juliana
  • Published on 06/01/2017
  • 3 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (469.07 KB)
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May

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 43:
What role did education, equipment age and technology play in 20th century productivity growth?

The 20th century was a period of exceptional growth, driven mainly by the increase in total factor productivity (TFP). Studying 17 OECD countries over the 1890-2013 period, this Rue de la Banque shows that the “one big wave” of productivity growth in...

By Bergeaud Antonin, Lecat Rémy
  • Published on 05/15/2017
  • EN
  • PDF (591.96 KB)
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April

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 42:
Do wealth inequalities have an impact on consumption?

On average, wealth effects on consumption are weak in France. However, this average effect may hide differences in behaviour. This issue of Rue de la Banque looks at the effects of wealth on consumption, and shows that they vary according to the size...

By Savignac Frédérique
  • Published on 04/25/2017
  • 5 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (548.4 KB)
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April

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 41:
Is demographics the housing cycle?

This Rue de la Banque provides evidence of the strong cyclical impact of demographics on housing investment. The common wisdom is that population growth affects the housing stock in the long run. However, in the short run, the growth rate of the age...

By Monnet Eric, Wolf Clara
  • Published on 04/06/2017
  • 5 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (570.51 KB)
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March

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 40:
How the Eurosystem’s enhanced credit support policy contributed to averting a severe credit crunch in 2009

The authors show that the Eurosystem’s Enhanced Credit Support policy package successfully contributed to averting a major credit crunch in 2009. This package included mainly the fixed rate full allotment (FRFA) and the longer-term refinancing...

  • Published on 03/20/2017
  • 6 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (682.49 KB)
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February

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 39:
Construction crises and business cycle: consequences for GDP forecasts

How do we take into account the specificities of the construction sector to forecast GDP growth? Construction activity is usually highly correlated with the economic cycle, both upswings and downswings. However, during construction-specific crises, its...

  • Published on 02/28/2017
  • 5 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (669.11 KB)
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February

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 38:
Capital inflows and credit growth: where do we stand?

Based on a sample of 31 advanced and emerging market economies, this Rue de la Banque shows that capital inflows tend to have a procyclical effect on domestic credit to the private sector. The lower the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of a...

By Jimborean Ramona
  • Published on 02/15/2017
  • EN
  • PDF (574.88 KB)
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January

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 37:
The impact of import prices on inflation in the euro area

We study low consumer price inflation in the euro area between 2013 and the third quarter of 2016, before its recent increase due to higher energy prices. Two main factors identified in Rue de la Banque No. 6 have continued to contribute roughly...

By Schmidt Katja
  • Published on 01/23/2017
  • 5 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (671.06 KB)
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January

Publication Rue de la Banque no. 36:
Competition for global value added: domestic and export market shares

Export market share indicators have become a yardstick for measuring competitiveness. This Rue de la Banque presents a more detailed indicator of countries’ market shares in value added that takes into account the import content of exports and the...

  • Published on 01/04/2017
  • 3 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (598.52 KB)
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