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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

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September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 924:
International sanctions and the dollar: Evidence from trade invoicing

This paper shows that international sanctions can undermine the role of the US dollar in trade invoicing. The analysis is based on the episode of international sanctions targeting Russia after the invasion of regions of Ukraine in 2014. While European...

By Berthou Antoine
  • Published on 09/14/2023
  • 41 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (863.8 KB)
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September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 923:
The Impossible Love of Fossil Fuel Companies for Carbon Taxes

Economists agree that carbon taxes are the most effective solution for climate change mitigation. But where do fossil fuel companies stand on carbon taxes? I analyse how the 100 largest oil and gas companies communicate on carbon taxes. Surprisingly, I...

By Naef Alain
  • Published on 09/12/2023
  • 47 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1005.02 KB)
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September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 922:
Using Short-Term Scenarios to Assess the Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Transition

This paper proposes a set of short-term scenarios that reflect the diversity of climate transition shocks -- increase in carbon and energy prices, increase in public or private investment in the low-carbon transition, increase in the cost of capital...

By Allen Thomas, Boullot Mathieu, Dees Stéphane, De Gaye Annabelle, Lisack Noëmie, Thubin Camille, Wegner Oriane
  • Published on 09/06/2023
  • 55 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.07 MB)
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August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 921:
Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France

The paper applies Natural Language Processing techniques (NLP) to the quasi-universe of newspaper articles for France, concentrating on the period 2004-2022, in order to measure inflation attention as well as perceptions by households and firms for...

By De Bandt Olivier, Bricongne Jean-Charles, Denes Julien, Dhenin Alexandre, De Gaye Annabelle, Robert Pierre-Antoine
  • Published on 08/25/2023
  • 62 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.69 MB)
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August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 920:
Stochastic Simulation of the FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Uncertainty around Conditional Forecasts

This paper presents a framework to introduce uncertainty into the FR-BDF model, used for macroeconomic projections and policy analysis at the Banque de France. Belonging to the semi-structural class of large-scale macroeconomic models, it is only fair...

By Turunen Harry, Zhutova Anastasia, Lemoine Matthieu
  • Published on 08/10/2023
  • 28 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.04 MB)
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July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 919:
Forecasting Euro Banknotes in Circulation with Structural Time Series Models in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic

As part of the Eurosystem’s annual banknote production planning, the national central banks draw up forecasts estimating the volumes of national-issued banknotes in circulation for the three years ahead. As at the end of 2021, more than 80 per cent of...

By Bartzsch Nikolaus, Brandi Marco, Devigne Lucas, De Pastor Raymond, Maddaloni Gianluca, Posada Restrepo Diana, Sene Gabriele
  • Published on 07/21/2023
  • 81 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (5.22 MB)
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July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 918:
Information Salience and Credit Supply: Evidence from Payment Defaults on Trade Bills

This paper provides novel evidence that information salience shapes banks’ lending decisions. We use a setting in which information about a borrower’s payment default on trade bills is available to all banks, but it appears more prominently to the bank...

By Baros Aleksandra, Croci Ettore, Girotti Mattia, Salvadè Federica
  • Published on 07/18/2023
  • 46 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.06 MB)
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July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 917:
Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning: a Three-Step Approach

We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the...

By Chinn Menzie, Meunier Baptiste, Stumpner Sebastian
  • Published on 07/12/2023
  • 49 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (982.73 KB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 916:
Satellites Turn “Concrete”: Tracking Cement with Satellite Data and Neural Networks

The Covid crisis has demonstrated the need for alternative data, in real-time and with global coverage. This paper exploits daily infrared images from satellites to track economic activity in advanced and emerging countries. We first develop a...

By d’Aspremont Alexandre, Ben Arous Simon, Bricongne Jean-Charles, Lietti Benjamin, Meunier Baptiste
  • Published on 06/27/2023
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.42 MB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 915:
US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel

We analyze the effects of exogenous US monetary policy shocks on trade credit towards emerging markets, using a proprietary database on trade credit amounts. We show that a US monetary tightening leads to an increase in foreign-supplied trade credit in...

By London Mélina, Silvestrini Maéva
  • Published on 06/20/2023
  • 41 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.82 MB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 914:
Swing Pricing and Flow Dynamics in Light of the Covid-19 Crisis

Swing pricing is a recent liquidity management tool designed to reallocate the liquidity cost from remaining to transacting investors, by adjusting share prices of investment funds. Based on unique text-mining data, we observe that its use is spreading...

By Baena Antoine, Garcia Thomas
  • Published on 06/19/2023
  • 64 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.31 MB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 913:
Monetary Policy and Labor Income Inequality: the Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins

Using French matched administrative-survey data, we quantify the distributional effects of monetary policy on labor income and decompose the extensive and intensive margins of these effects. We find that the effects of ECB monetary policy shocks on...

By Hubert Paul, Savignac Frédérique
  • Published on 06/07/2023
  • 49 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.42 MB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 912:
Euro Area Monetary Policy Effects. Does the Shape of the Yield Curve Matter?

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy in the euro area. We make three main contributions to the literature. First, we use the information from movements in the entire yield curve around monetary policy events to shed light on the...

By Odendahl Florens, Pagliari Maria Sole, Penalver Adrian, Rossi Barbara, Sestieri Giulia
  • Published on 06/01/2023
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.43 MB)
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April

Publication Working Paper Series no. 911:
Blowing against the Wind? A Narrative Approach to Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention

Most countries in the world use foreign exchange interventions, but measuring the success of the policy is difficult. By using a narrative approach, I identify interventions when the central bank manages to reverse the exchange rate based on pure luck....

By Naef Alain
  • Published on 04/26/2023
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (995.61 KB)
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March

Publication Working Paper Series no. 910:
Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Net-Zero Transition Costs

We explore the role of public subsidies in mitigating the transition costs associated with achieving a climate-neutral objective by 2060. To this end, we develop and estimate a quantitative macro-climate model for the world economy featuring an...

By Jondeau Eric, Levieuge Grégory, Sahuc Jean-Guillaume, Vermandel Gauthier
  • Published on 03/17/2023
  • 48 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.08 MB)
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February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 909:
How Can Technology Significantly Contribute to Climate Change Mitigation?

This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the COP21 goals of net zero CO2 emissions and global warming below 2°C at the end of the century. It uses the ACCL model, particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price...

By Alestra Claire, Cette Gilbert, Chouard Valérie, Lecat Rémy
  • Published on 02/20/2023
  • 22 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.3 MB)
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February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 908:
Stablecoins and the Financing of the Real Economy

Stablecoins are crypto-assets that aim to maintain a stable value relative to a fiat currency. This paper documents one implication of their massive growth since 2020 for the financing of the real economy. The largest stablecoins manage their peg with...

By Barthélemy Jean, Gardin Paul, Nguyen Benoît
  • Published on 02/14/2023
  • 64 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.39 MB)
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February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 907:
The Stumbling Block in ‘the Race of our Lives’: Transition-Critical Materials, Financial Risks and the NGFS Climate Scenarios

Several ‘critical’ raw materials, including metals, minerals and Rare Earth Elements (REEs), play a central role in the low-carbon transition and are needed to expand the deployment of low-carbon technologies. The reliable and affordable supply of...

By Miller Hugh, Dikau Simon, Svartzman Romain, Dees Stéphane
  • Published on 02/10/2023
  • 64 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.98 MB)
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February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 906:
International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa

Global commodity prices spikes can have strong macroeconomic effects, particularly in developing countries. This paper estimates the global commodity prices pass-through to consumer price inflation in Africa. Our sample includes monthly data for 48...

By Lemaire Thibault, Vertier Paul
  • Published on 02/08/2023
  • 47 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.42 MB)
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January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 905:
The Dynamic IS Curve when there is both Investment and Savings

The dynamic IS curve of New-Keynesian models captures the dependence of aggregate demand on future interest rates, but only in the case where there is no investment and the interest rate channel only originates in the savings decisions of households....

By Dupraz Stéphane
  • Published on 01/25/2023
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.38 MB)
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January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 904:
Measuring and Comparing Consumption Inequality between France and the United States

This paper constructs an annual dataset of consumption by income quintiles for France since 1989 in order to make a granular comparison of consumption inequality with the United States. First, we match consumption data from a survey run every five...

By Aliocha Accardo, Herbert Sylvérie, Jude Cristina, Penalver Adrian
  • Published on 01/24/2023
  • 44 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.35 MB)
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