You are here

Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

Share links

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 856:
The Common Currency Effect on International Trade: Evidence from an Accidental Monetary Union

I rely on a historical natural experiment to provide, for the first time, a causal estimate of the effect of currency unions on international trade. Since the seminal paper by Rose (2000), a large literature has developed around currencies as a trade...

By Vicquéry Roger
  • Published on 12/31/2021
  • 63 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.18 MB)
Read

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 855:
The Central Bank, the Treasury, or the Market: Which One Determines the Price Level?

This paper studies a model in which the price level is the outcome of dynamic strategic interactions between a fiscal authority, a monetary authority, and investors in government bonds and reserves. The ''unpleasant monetarist arithmetic'...

By Barthélemy Jean, Mengus Eric, Plantin Guillaume
  • Published on 12/17/2021
  • 65 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (839.36 KB)
Read

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 854:
Committed to Flexible Fiscal Rules

We study the impact of fiscal rules on macroeconomic performance. To address the endogeneity of rule adoption, we use data on large, random natural disasters. We document empirically that countries with rules perform significantly better following such...

By Grosse Steffen Christoph, Laura Pagenhardt, Rieth Malte
  • Published on 12/14/2021
  • 46 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.7 MB)
Read

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 853:
The Reproducibility of Economics Research: A Case Study

Given the importance of reproducibility for the scientific ethos, more and more journals have pushed for transparency of research through data availability policies. If the introduction and implementation of such data policies improve the availability...

By Herbert Sylvérie, Kingi_Hautahi, Stanchi Flavio, Vilhuber Lars
  • Published on 12/10/2021
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.07 MB)
Read

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 852:
Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: Do Inflation Target Formulations Matter?

Inflation target formulations differ across countries and over time. Most widespread are point targets, target ranges, hybrid combinations of the two, or mere definitions of price stability. This paper proposes a novel empirical measure of expectations...

By Grosse Steffen Christoph
  • Published on 12/09/2021
  • 67 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (5.62 MB)
Read

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 851:
Activity shocks and corporate liquidity: the role of trade credit

We show both theoretically and empirically how trade credit financing may magnify the impact of activity shocks on corporate liquidity. Using unique daily data on payment defaults on suppliers in France, we quantify the magnitude of the short-term...

By Bureau Benjamin, Duquerroy Anne, Vinas Frédéric
  • Published on 12/08/2021
  • 57 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.28 MB)
Read

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 850:
The Political Economy of Currency Unions

How can a currency union be sustained when member states have an exit option? This paper derives how fiscal and monetary policies can ensure the survival of a common currency, if countries want to leave the union. A union-wide central bank can prevent...

By Kai Arvai
  • Published on 12/06/2021
  • 81 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (946.4 KB)
Read

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 849:
Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?

Long considered suboptimal, capital controls and FX interventions are now recognized as prudential measures. Yet, whether they should be used in combination remains an open question. Thanks to a rich dataset from 1950, we investigate how the response...

By Cezar Rafaël, Monnet Eric
  • Published on 11/26/2021
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.25 MB)
Read

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 848:
Paying Banks to Lend? Evidence from the Eurosystem's TLTRO and the Euro Area Credit Registry

Since March 2020 the Eurosystem has provided subsidies to Euro-Area banks, via its Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO). Under this program, banks can borrow from the Eurosystem at a rate as low as -1%, conditional on their lending to...

By Da Silva Émilie, Grossmann-Wirth Vincent, Nguyen Benoît, Vari Miklos
  • Published on 11/19/2021
  • 59 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.58 MB)
Read

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 847:
Can satellite data on air pollution predict industrial production?

The Covid-19 crisis has highlighted innovative high-frequency dataset allowing to measure in real-time the economic impact. In this vein, we explore how satellite data measuring the concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2, a pollutant emitted mainly by...

By Bricongne Jean-Charles, Meunier Baptiste, Pical Thomas
  • Published on 11/18/2021
  • 37 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.71 MB)
Read

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 846:
News from the Frontier: Increased Productivity Dispersion across Firms and Factor Reallocation

Analysing French firms over 1991-2016, we find first that since the beginning of the century, one or two downward significant productivity breaks have occurred in all industries, both at the frontier and for laggard firms, suggesting a decline in the...

By Bouche Paul, Lecat Rémy
  • Published on 11/16/2021
  • 51 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.79 MB)
Read

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 845:
Overview and inventory of french funds' liquidity management tools: Dynamic view since 2017 and update as at mid-2021

This article presents an update of the analysis of French-domiciled funds’ prospectuses carried out jointly by the Autorité des marchés financiers and the Banque de France (Darpeix, LeMoign, Même, Novakovic, 2020). The first contribution of this new...

By Darpeix Pierre-Emmanuel, Même Nicolas, Mosson Natacha, Novakovic Marko
  • Published on 11/09/2021
  • 35 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.95 MB)
Read

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 844:
Debt-Stabilizing Properties of GDP-Linked Securities: A Macro-Finance Perspective

We study the debt-stabilizing properties of indexing debt to GDP using a consumption-based macro-finance model. Three results stand out. First, GDP-linked bond prices would embed sizeable and timevarying risk premiums of about 40 basis points. Second,...

By Mouabbi Sarah, Renne Jean-Paul, Sahuc Jean-Guillaume
  • Published on 11/08/2021
  • 53 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.93 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 843:
The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED’s Strategic Response

The paper shows, in a simple analytical framework, the existence of a deflationary bias in an economy with a low natural rate of interest, a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates and a discretionary Central Bank with an inflation...

By Penalver Adrian, Siena Daniele
  • Published on 10/28/2021
  • 41 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.33 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 842:
Financial flows, macro-prudential policies, capital restrictions and institutions: what do gravity equations tell us?

This paper analyzes the impact on financial flows of institutional factors promoting financial integration such as European integration or trying to tame them such as capital control or macro-prudential policies. We use a detailed database of bilateral...

By Bricongne Jean-Charles, Antoine Cosson, Albane Garnier-Sauveplane, Lecat Rémy, Peresa Irena, Yuliya Vanzhulova
  • Published on 10/25/2021
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.76 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 841:
Strategic Trading, Welfare and Prices with Futures Contracts

Derivatives contracts are designed to improve risk sharing in financial markets, but among them, forwards, futures and swaps often appear redundant with their underlying assets: buying the asset and storing it is equivalent to buying it later. I show...

By Dastarac Hugues
  • Published on 10/22/2021
  • 82 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.49 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 840:
Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France

Using a new survey of firms’ inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still...

By Savignac Frédérique, Gautier Erwan, Gorodnichenko Yuriy, Coibion Olivier
  • Published on 10/21/2021
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.2 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 839:
Empirical Investigation of a Sufficient Statistic for Monetary Shocks

In a broad class of sticky price models the non-neutrality of nominal shocks is encoded by a simple sufficient statistic: the ratio of the kurtosis of the size-distribution of price changes over the frequency of price changes. We test this theoretical...

By Alvarez Fernando, Ferrara Andrea, Gautier Erwan, Le Bihan Hervé, Lippi Francesco
  • Published on 10/20/2021
  • 94 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.76 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 838:
Promoting Self-employment: Does it create more Employment and Business Activity?

We assess the economic impact of reforms promoting self-employment in the three countries that have implemented such reforms since the early 2000s: the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and France. To that end, we use an unbalanced cross country-industry...

By Lopez Jimmy
  • Published on 10/19/2021
  • 21 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.1 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 837:
The channels of banks’ response to negative interest rates

Faced with a potential zero lower bound on deposit interest rates, how do banks pass on the fall in net interest income due to negative interest rates? This paper aims to investigate the different channels of banks’ responses to negative interest rates...

By Boungou Whelsy, Hubert Paul
  • Published on 10/18/2021
  • 48 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1017.32 KB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 836:
The Cognitive Load of Financing Constraints: Evidence from Large-Scale Wage Surveys

In this paper, we take advantage of the implicit cognitive exercise available in standard Labor Force Surveys to propose a new indicator of financing constraints which is based on the cognitive load they generate (Mullainathan and Shafir, 2013). Survey...

By Berson Clémence, Lardeux Raphaël, Lelarge Claire
  • Published on 10/15/2021
  • 63 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.34 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 835:
Productivity Slowdown, Tax Havens and MNEs’ Intangibles: where is Measured Value Creation?

Based on French firm-level data over around 15 years we evaluate the contribution of the micro-level profit shifting –through tax haven foreign direct investments to the aggregate productivity slowdown measured in France. We show that firm measured...

By Bricongne Jean-Charles, Delpeuch Samuel, Lopez Forero Margarita
  • Published on 10/07/2021
  • 60 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.38 MB)
Read

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 834:
How Powerful is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?

Though most central banks actively intervene on the foreign exchange market, the literature offers mixed evidence on their effectiveness: particularly for unannounced interventions. We use new, declassified data from the archives of the Bank of England...

By Naef Alain, Weber Jacob P
  • Published on 10/05/2021
  • 31 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.22 MB)
Read

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 833:
The Meaning of MMT

In the last few years in the U.S. and especially since the publication of Stephanie Kelton’s book, The Deficit Myth (Kelton, 2020) in Europe, the so-called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining prominence in the media and the public. This paper...

By Drumetz Françoise, Pfister Christian
  • Published on 09/27/2021
  • 28 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (686.45 KB)
Read

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 832:
Regional Income Distributions in France,1960–2018

This paper proposes homogeneous annual series on the income distribution of French metropolitan départements for the period 1960-69 and 1986-2018. We rely on unpublished and newly digitised archives of the French Ministry of Finance. They consist of...

By Bonnet Florian, Sotura Aurélie
  • Published on 09/24/2021
  • 32 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.22 MB)
Read

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 831:
Competition and agency problems within banks: Evidence from insider lending

This paper studies whether greater competition can mitigate agency problems within banks. We measure the intensity of the agency conflict within a bank by the volume of loans that the bank lends to its insiders (e.g., executives). We first check that...

By Girotti Mattia, Salvadè Federica
  • Published on 09/17/2021
  • 62 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.18 MB)
Read

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 830:
Risk-to-Buffer: Setting Cyclical and Structural Capital Buffers through Banks Stress Tests

In this work we present the Risk-to-Buffer: a new framework to jointly calibrate cyclical and structural capital buffers, based on the integration of a non-linear macroeconomic model with a Stress test model. The macroeconomic model generates scenarios...

By Couaillier Cyril, Scalone Valerio
  • Published on 09/08/2021
  • 43 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (2.24 MB)
Read

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 829:
Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies

This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the...

By Pagliari Maria Sole
  • Published on 09/06/2021
  • 73 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.45 MB)
Read

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 828:
Downward Interest Rate Rigidity

Empirical evidence suggests that bank lending rates are downward rigid: banks tend to adjust their rates more slowly and less completely to short-term market rates decreases than to increases. We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of this...

By Levieuge Grégory, Sahuc Jean-Guillaume
  • Published on 09/03/2021
  • 47 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.43 MB)
Read

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 827:
Web Scraping Housing Prices in Real-time: the Covid-19 Crisis in the UK

While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from...

By Bricongne Jean-Charles, Meunier Baptiste, Pouget Sylvain
  • Published on 08/31/2021
  • 42 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.42 MB)
Read

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 826:
A “Silent Spring” for the Financial System? Exploring Biodiversity-Related Financial Risks in France

This paper contributes to an emerging literature aimed at uncovering the linkages between biodiversity loss and financial instability, by exploring biodiversity-related financial risks (BRFR) in France. We first build on previous studies and propose an...

By Svartzman Romain, Espagne Etienne, Gauthey Julien, Hadji-Lazaro Paul, Salin Mathilde, Allen Thomas, Berger Joshua, Calas Julien, Godin Antoine, Vallier Antoine
  • Published on 08/27/2021
  • 95 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.69 MB)
Read

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 825:
The Case for a Positive Euro Area Inflation Target: Evidence from France, Germany and Italy

Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends...

By Klaus Adam, Gautier Erwan, Santoro Sergio, Weber Henning
  • Published on 08/05/2021
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (921.4 KB)
Read

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 824:
What Individual Data Tells us about the Covid-19 Impact on Corporate Liquidity in 2020

Using rich granular data for over 645 000 French firms in 2020, this paper builds a micro-simulation model to assess the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate liquidity. Going beyond the aggregate picture, we document that while net debt has been...

By Bureau Benjamin, Duquerroy Anne, Giorgi Julien, Lé Mathias, Scott Suzanne, Vinas Frédéric
  • Published on 07/20/2021
  • 56 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.74 MB)
Read

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 823:
Corporate activity in France amid the Covid-19 crisis. A granular data analysis.

Taking advantage of detailed firm-level data on VAT returns, we estimate the monthly impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the turnover of more than 645,000 French firms. Our approach, based on a micro-simulation model, is innovative in a triple way....

By Bureau Benjamin, Duquerroy Anne, Giorgi Julien, Lé Mathias, Scott Suzanne, Vinas Frédéric
  • Published on 07/20/2021
  • 94 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (11.52 MB)
Read

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 822:
Climate Change in Developing Countries: Global Warming Effects, Transmission Channels and Adaptation Policies

Using panel data covering 126 low- and middle-income countries over 1960-2017, we find that sustained positive temperature deviations from their historical norms have a non-linear negative effect on economic growth and growth per capita. A sustained 1...

By De Bandt Olivier, Jacolin Luc, Lemaire Thibault
  • Published on 07/15/2021
  • 68 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (5.03 MB)
Read

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 821:
Enrichment of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey: lessons from textual analysis of business leaders’ comments

In the context of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey, this document presents the main findings of the textual analysis of business leaders’ comments. First, the richness of these data is illustrated via an elementary sentiment index and the...

By Gerardin Mathilde, Ranvier Martial
  • Published on 07/02/2021
  • 59 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (2.55 MB)
Read

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 820:
Inflation tolerance ranges in the New Keynesian model

A number of central banks in advanced countries use ranges, or bands, around their inflation target to formulate their monetary policy strategy. The adoption of such ranges has been proposed by some policymakers in the context of the Fed and the ECB...

By Le Bihan Hervé, Marx Magali, Matheron Julien
  • Published on 06/29/2021
  • 35 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.17 MB)
Read

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 819:
Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve

This paper shows that the change in the occupational composition of the labor market in favour of non-routine jobs -i.e. job polarization- flattens the price Phillips Curve (PC). Using data from the European Monetary Union and exploiting the fact that...

By Siena Daniele, Zago Riccardo
  • Published on 06/17/2021
  • 56 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (3.48 MB)
Read

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 818:
Is a Money-financed Fiscal Stimulus Desirable?

We analyse the redistribution channel of a money-financed versus debt-financed fiscal stimulus in a Borrower-Saver frammework. The redistribution channel is larger when we consider a money-financed fiscal stimulus. However, it generates also larger...

By Punzo Chiara, Rossi Lorenza
  • Published on 06/14/2021
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.05 MB)
Read

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 817:
Welfare-Based Optimal Macroprudential Policy with Shadow Banks

In this paper, I show that the existence of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) has implications for the optimal regulation of the traditional banking sector. I develop a New Keynesian DSGE model for the euro area featuring a heterogeneous...

By Gebauer Stefan
  • Published on 06/10/2021
  • 95 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.66 MB)
Read

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 816:
Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Private Investment in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Crowding-In or Out ?

This paper investigates the relationship between FDI and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a sample of 40 countries over 1980-2017. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean...

By Askandarou Diallo, Jacolin Luc, Isabelle Rabaud
  • Published on 06/09/2021
  • 38 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.11 MB)
Read

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 815:
No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change.

In this paper we explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up a two-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions....

By Ferrari Massimo, Pagliari Maria Sole
  • Published on 06/08/2021
  • 75 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.02 MB)
Read

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 814:
Good Connections: Bank Specialization and the Tariff Elasticity of Exports

In this paper, we show that exporters react more strongly to a cut in tariffs by a distant country when their banks have already been specializing in funding exports to this country. To make our case, we build upon a theoretical model where an...

By Berthou Antoine, Mayer Thierry, Mésonnier Jean-Stéphane
  • Published on 05/19/2021
  • 41 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.37 MB)
Read

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 813:
Public spending, currency mismatch and financial frictions

In this paper, we demonstrate that the size of the fiscal multiplier depends both on currency mismatch and home bias. Our demonstration is based on a real two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with incomplete and imperfect...

By Marie Pierre Hory, Levieuge Grégory, Daria Onori
  • Published on 05/17/2021
  • 33 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.4 MB)
Read

May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 812:
Greening Monetary Policy: Evidence from the People's Bank of China

In June 2018, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to include green financial bonds into the pool of assets eligible as collateral for its Medium Term Lending Facility. The PBoC also gave green financial bonds a “first-among-equals” status. We...

By Macaire Camille, Naef Alain
  • Published on 05/04/2021
  • 24 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.41 MB)
Read

April

Publication Working Paper Series no. 811:
Should the ECB Adjust its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?

We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real interest rate, r*,...

By Andrade Philippe, Galí Jordi, Le Bihan Hervé, Matheron Julien
  • Published on 04/21/2021
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.15 MB)
Read

April

Publication Working Paper Series no. 810:
Bankruptcy Costs and the Design of Preventive Restructuring Procedures

A European directive requires Member States to give firms access to preventive restructuring procedures. This paper assesses the interest of a procedure distinct from that for insolvent firms. It is based on the French experience, where a preventive...

By Epaulard Anne, Zapha Chloé
  • Published on 04/20/2021
  • 58 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.35 MB)
Read

March

Publication Working Paper Series no. 809:
Return on Investment on AI: The Case of Capital Requirement

Taking advantage of granular data we measure the change in bank capital requirement resulting from the implementation of AI techniques to predict corporate defaults. For each of the largest banks operating in France we design an algorithm to build...

By Fraisse Henri, Laporte Matthias
  • Published on 03/11/2021
  • 37 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.14 MB)
Read

March

Publication Working Paper Series no. 808:
Intergenerational Homeownership in France over the 20th Century

We estimate the intergenerational correlation in homeownership status between two generations for cohorts covering the 20th century. First, we find higher intergenerational correlation in France compared to previous results obtained for the U.K. for...

By Garbinti Bertrand, Savignac Frédérique
  • Published on 03/05/2021
  • 37 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.83 MB)
Read

February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 807:
Statistical Modelization of Overindebtedness

The procedure for overindebtedness was born in the late 1980s, in a context of strong expansion of consumer credit. In 2010, better supervision of business practices by the public authorities helped to limit the scale of consumer credit....

By Tran Amandine
  • Published on 02/12/2021
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.26 MB)
Read

February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 806:
The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of the ECB's asset purchase programme (APP) using a proxy structural vector autoregression. We construct a novel proxy for structural APP shocks as unexpected changes in the size of additional ...

By Lhuissier Stéphane, Nguyen Benoît
  • Published on 02/08/2021
  • 62 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.76 MB)
Read

February

Publication Working Paper Series no. 805:
A Prudential trade-off? Leakages and Interactions with Monetary Policy

While monetary and prudential policies are generally analysed separately, this paper focuses on how the two interact. Taking an international perspective, we show that monetary policy in a centre economy (Euro Area) spill over its borders through bank...

By Meunier Baptiste, Pedrono Justine
  • Published on 02/05/2021
  • 21 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (592.66 KB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 804:
The Impact of Regulation on Innovation

Does regulation affect the pace and nature of innovation and if so, by how much? We build a tractable and quantifiable endogenous growth model with size-contingent regulations. We apply this to population administrative firm panel data from France,...

By Aghion Philippe, Bergeaud Antonin, Van Reenen John
  • Published on 01/29/2021
  • 78 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.11 MB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 803:
Heterogeneous Policy Distortions and the Labor Share

I develop an extension of the neoclassical growth model in which firms are heterogeneous both in terms of labor share and productivity. In this model, distortions in the allocation of resources across firms can impact the labor share of national income...

By Smagghue Gabriel
  • Published on 01/26/2021
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.4 MB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 802:
Do Words Hurt More Than Actions? The Impact of Trade Tensions on Financial Markets

In this paper, we apply textual analysis and machine learning algorithms to construct an index capturing trade tensions between US and China. Our indicator matches well-known events in the US-China trade dispute and is exogenous to the developments on...

By Ferrari Massimo, Kurcz Frederik, Pagliari Maria Sole
  • Published on 01/25/2021
  • 42 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.13 MB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 801:
Aggregate Implications of Credit Relationship Flows: a Tale of Two Margins

This paper documents the aggregate properties of credit relationship flows within the commercial loan market in France from 1998 through 2018. Using detailed bank-firm level data from the French Credit Register, we show that banks actively and...

By Boualam Yasser, Mazet-Sonilhac Clément
  • Published on 01/15/2021
  • 77 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.98 MB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 800:
Showing off cleaner hands: mandatory climate-related disclosure by financial institutions and the financing of fossil energy

We investigate the real effects of mandatory climate-related disclosure by financial institutions on the funding of carbon-intensive industries. Our impact metric is the amount invested into securities, bonds and stocks, issued by fossil fuel companies...

By Mésonnier Jean-Stéphane, Nguyen Benoît
  • Published on 01/08/2021
  • 39 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.16 MB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 799:
Fiscal Stimulus in Liquidity Traps: Conventional or Unconventional Policies?

Recent influential work argue that a gradual increase in sales tax stimulates economic activity in a liquidity trap by boosting inflation expectations. Higher public infrastructure investment should also be more expansive in a liquidity trap than in...

By Lemoine Matthieu, Lindé Jesper
  • Published on 01/06/2021
  • 67 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (850.63 KB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 798:
Structural Estimation of Time-Varying Spillovers: An Application to International Credit Risk Transmission

We propose a novel approach to quantify spillovers on financial markets based on a structural version of the Diebold-Yilmaz framework. Key to our approach is a SVAR-GARCH model that is statistically identified by heteroskedasticity, economically...

By Boeckelmann Lukas, Stalla-Bourdillon Arthur
  • Published on 01/05/2021
  • 61 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.07 MB)
Read

January

Publication Working Paper Series no. 797:
Global Value Chains and the transmission of exchange rate shocks to consumer prices

Following the 2008 financial crisis, inflation rates in advanced economies have been at odds with the prediction of a standard Phillips curve. This puzzle has triggered a debate on the global determinants of domestic prices. We contribute to this...

By Camatte Hadrien, Faubert Violaine, Lalliard Antoine, Daudin Guillaume, Rifflart Christine
  • Published on 01/04/2021
  • 47 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (5.53 MB)
Read