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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 903:
Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section

Stock prices declined abruptly in the wake of the Covid-19, reflecting both the deterioration of investors’ expectations of economic activity as well as the surge in risk aversion. In the following months, however, economic activity remained sluggish...

By Chatelais Nicolas, Chinn Menzie, Stalla-Bourdillon Arthur
  • Published on 12/29/2022
  • 32 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.98 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 902:
Time-Consistent Implementation in Macroeconomic Games

The commitment ability of governments is neither infinite nor zero but intermediate. In this paper, we determine the commitment ability that a government needs to implement a unique equilibrium outcome and rule out undesired self-fulfilling...

By Barthélemy Jean, Mengus Eric
  • Published on 12/27/2022
  • 70 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.05 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 901:
Sovereign Debt and International Trade

Evidence suggests that sovereign defaults disrupt international trade. As a consequence, countries that are more open have more to lose from a sovereign default and are less inclined to renege on their debt. In turn, lenders should trust more open...

By Charles Serfaty
  • Published on 12/26/2022
  • 70 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.46 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 900:
Encouraging and Directing Job Search: Direct and Spillover Effects in a Large Scale Experiment

We analyze the employment effects of directing job seekers' applications towards establishments likely to recruit, building upon an existing Internet platform developed by the French public employment service. Our two-sided randomization design,...

By Behaghel Luc, Dromundo Sofia, Gurgand Marc, Hazard Yagan, Zuber Thomas
  • Published on 12/23/2022
  • 51 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (3.55 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 899:
Opposing Firm Level Responses to the China Shock: Output Competition versus Input Supply

We decompose the “China shock” into two components that induce different adjustments for firms exposed to Chinese exports: an output shock affecting firms selling goods that compete with similar imported Chinese goods, and an input supply shock...

By Aghion Philippe, Bergeaud Antonin, Lequien Matthieu, Marc Melitz, Thomas Zuber
  • Published on 12/22/2022
  • 30 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.06 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 898:
Central Bank Communication of Uncertainty

In this paper, we examine how the monetary policy setting committees of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank communicate their reaction to incoming data in their policy deliberation process by expressing confidence,...

By Hanifi Rayane, Istrefi Klodiana, Penalver Adrian
  • Published on 12/21/2022
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.16 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 897:
Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements

How do financial markets acquire information about upcoming monetary policy decisions, beyond their reaction to central bank signals? This paper hypothesises that sharing information among investors can improve expectations, especially in the presence...

By Ehrmann Michael, Hubert Paul
  • Published on 12/20/2022
  • 42 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.42 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 896:
Fiscal policy orientation in the euro area in real-time

This paper analyses the orientation of fiscal policy in the euro area in real-time, using a new real-time dataset including 11 euro area countries for the 1999-2019 period. We compare the cyclicality of the fiscal stance, measured as the change in the...

By Schmidt Katja, Sigwalt Antoine
  • Published on 12/19/2022
  • 35 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (1.34 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 895:
Does FinTech Promote Entrepreneurship? Evidence from China

The rise of financial technology (FinTech) in China over the past decade has changed the traditional financial landscape in the country. We provide evidence on the role of digital financial services in promoting self-employment. We construct an...

By Alraqeb Zeynep, Knaack Peter, Macaire Camille
  • Published on 12/13/2022
  • 33 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.43 MB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 894:
Aggregation Across Each Nation: Aggregator Choice and Macroeconomic Dynamics

We study the implications of trade aggregation in an infinite-horizon economy with multiple countries, asking whether there is a role for alternatives to the Armington aggregator in a wide range of workhorse open-economy macroeconomics models. We show...

By Lisack Noëmie, Lloyd Simon, Sajedi Rana
  • Published on 12/09/2022
  • 45 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (922.73 KB)
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December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 893:
House Price Convergence: Evidence from India

The “club convergence” of sub-national house prices has so far been studied in respect of a number of advanced economies and emerging markets, but not for India. As such, this study contributes to this gap in literature by analyzing long-run...

By Rajesh Raj, Rath D.P.
  • Published on 12/07/2022
  • 35 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.41 MB)
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November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 892:
Is Capital Account Convertibility Required for the Renminbi to Acquire Reserve Currency Status?

It is widely assumed that the renminbi (RMB) cannot acquire a meaningful place in central bank reserve portfolios without full liberalization of China’s capital account. We argue that the RMB can in fact develop into a consequential reserve currency in...

By Eichengreen Barry, Macaire Camille, Mehl Arnaud, Monnet Eric, Naef Alain
  • Published on 11/18/2022
  • 37 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.1 MB)
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