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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

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July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 879:
Exchange Rate Undervaluation and African Surges: What Do We Learn From Exported Products?

We investigate the role of undervaluation of African currencies in export “surges” of some primary and manufactured goods. We calculate country-product specific misalignments on the basis of the absolute purchasing power parity principle adjusted for...

By da Piedade Camille, Jacolin Luc, Plane Patrick
  • Published on 07/12/2022
  • 49 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.38 MB)
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July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 878:
New Facts on Consumer Price Rigidity in the Euro Area

Using CPI micro data for 11 euro area countries covering about 60% of the euro area consumption basket over the period 2010-2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: (i) each month on average 12.3% of prices change (vs...

By Gautier Erwan, Conflitti Cristina, Riemer P. Faber, Fabo Brian, Fadejeva Ludmila, Jouvanceau Valentin, Menz Jan-Olivier, Messner Teresa, Petroulas Pavlos, Roldan-Blanco Pau, Rumler Fabio, Santoro Sergio, Wieland Elisabeth, Zimmer Hélène
  • Published on 07/06/2022
  • 113 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.94 MB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 877:
Lost in Negative Territory? Search for Yield!

We study how negative interest rate policy (NIRP) affects banks’ loan pricing. Using contract-level data from France, we show that NIRP affects bank lending rates to firms through a portfolio rebalancing channel: banks holding a one standard deviation...

By Girotti Mattia, Horny Guillaume, Sahuc Jean-Guillaume
  • Published on 06/28/2022
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.1 MB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 876:
Patents that Match your Standards: Firm-level Evidence on Competition and Growth

When a technology becomes the new standard, the firms that are leaders in producing this technology have a competitive advantage. Matching the semantic content of patents to standards and exploiting the exogenous timing of standardization, we show that...

By Bergeaud Antonin, Schmidt Julia, Zago Riccardo
  • Published on 06/24/2022
  • 60 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.39 MB)
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June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 875:
State-dependent Central Bank Communication with Heterogeneous Beliefs

This paper studies how state-contingent central bank communication can improve welfare when externalities are at play. In the model, a central banker (CB) wants to influence the private sector beliefs, which are heterogeneous, to generate an upward...

By Herbert Sylvérie
  • Published on 06/02/2022
  • 48 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.91 MB)
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May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 874:
Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?

We empirically investigate the impact of natural disasters on the external finance premium (EFP), conditional on the stringency of macroprudential regulation. The intensity of natural disasters is measured through an original set of geophysical...

By Avril Pauline, Levieuge Grégory, Turcu Camelia
  • Published on 05/25/2022
  • 51 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.74 MB)
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May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 873:
Information Frictions Across Various Types of Inflation Expectations

Understanding how the degree of information frictions varies among economic agents is of utmost importance for macroeconomic dynamics. We document and compare the frequency of forecast revisions and cross-sectional disagreement in inflation...

By Cornand Camille, Hubert Paul
  • Published on 05/23/2022
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.66 MB)
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May

Publication Working Paper Series no. 872:
Responsibility for Emissions: the Case of the Swiss National Bank’s Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Norwegian Oil Fund

Should public investors take responsibility for the greenhouse gas emissions of the firms that they invest in? This paper answers this question through a comparative study of two very different investors: the Swiss National Bank (SNB)’s foreign...

By Naef Alain, Klooster Jens van ’t
  • Published on 05/06/2022
  • 40 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.16 MB)
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April

Publication Working Paper Series no. 871:
When Could Macroprudential and Monetary Policies Be in Conflict?

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the potential conflicts between macroprudential and monetary policies within a DGSE model with financial frictions. The identification of conflicts is conditional on different types of shocks,...

By Revelo José García, Levieuge Grégory
  • Published on 04/07/2022
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.59 MB)
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April

Publication Working Paper Series no. 870:
The Currency Channel of the Global Bank Leverage Cycle

The amplitude of leverage procyclicality is heterogeneous across banks and across countries. This paper introduces international diversification of bank balance sheet as a factor of this observed heterogeneity, with a special emphasis on currency...

By Pedrono Justine
  • Published on 04/04/2022
  • 50 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (857.77 KB)
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March

Publication Working Paper Series no. 869:
Forecasting Inflation in France: an Update of MAPI

In this paper, we present an updated version of the reference model used at Banque de France to forecast inflation: MAPI (Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation). While the conceptual framework of the model remains very close to its initial...

By Ulgazi Youssef, Vertier Paul
  • Published on 03/31/2022
  • 33 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.82 MB)
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March

Publication Working Paper Series no. 868:
On the Choice of Central Counterparties in the EU

New regulations promote the role of Central Counter-Parties (CCPs) as insurers of counterparty risk to stabilize derivative markets. Focusing on the demand side, we investigate how pairs of dealers choose the CCP on which they clear a given...

By Demange Gabrielle, Thibaut Piquard
  • Published on 03/07/2022
  • 43 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (691.07 KB)
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