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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 705:
Relationship lending and SMEs’ funding costs over the cycle: why diversification of borrowing matters

Using a unique panel design that enables to control for bank, firm, market and loan heterogeneities, we confirm that relationship lenders charge higher rates in good times and lower rates in bad times. However, we show that risky single-bank firms do...

By Béatriz Mikael, Coffinet Jérôme, Nicolas Théo
  • Published on 12/31/2018
  • 48 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.86 MB)

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 704:
Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small Open Economies

In emerging market economies (EMEs), capital inflows are associated to productivity booms. However, the experience of advanced small open economies (AEs), like the ones of the Euro Area periphery, points to the opposite, i.e., capital inflows lead to...

By Monacelli Tommaso, Sala Luca, Siena Daniele
  • Published on 12/28/2018
  • 54 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (3.32 MB)

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 703:
Money and Capital in a Persistent Liquidity Trap

In this paper we analyze the implications of a persistent liquidity trap in a monetary model with asset scarcity. We show that a liquidity trap may lead to an increase in real cash holdings and be associated with a decline in output in the medium term....

By Bacchetta Philippe, Benhima Kenza, Kalantzis Yannick
  • Published on 12/17/2018
  • 34 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.33 MB)

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 702:
Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models

We propose a simple risk-adjusted linear approximation to solve a large class of dynamic models with time-varying and non-Gaussian risk. Our approach generalizes lognormal affine approximations commonly used in the macro-finance literature and can be...

By Lopez Pierlauro, Lopez-Salido David, Vazquez-Grande Francisco
  • Published on 12/06/2018
  • 42 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.48 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 701:
Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position

This paper aims at estimating the impact of the recent Asset Purchase Programs implemented by the ECB - known as Quantitative easing (QE) - on external assets and liabilities recorded in one economy’s International Investment Position (IIP). Our...

By Cezar Rafaël, Silvestrini Maéva
  • Published on 11/23/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (2.35 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 700:
Monetary Rules, Determinacy and Limited Enforcement

This paper investigates the ability of monetary policy rules to coordinate private agents' expectations when the enforcement of rules is limited. We show that limited enforcement precludes diverging inflation paths ensuring that nominal variables...

By Barthélemy Jean, Mengus Eric
  • Published on 11/21/2018
  • 48 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (658.12 KB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 699:
Taxation of Savings and Portfolio Choices of French Households

France is the European country in which, together with the United Kingdom, the taxation of saving is highest (6% of GDP in 2016, against on average 3.8% in the European Union and 3.5% in the euro area). This situation is evaluated with regard to the...

  • Published on 11/20/2018
  • 16 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (1.83 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 698:
Flight-to-safety and the Credit Crunch: A new history of the banking crisis in France during the Great Depression

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale and consequences of the French banking crises of 1930–1931 were never assessed quantitatively due to lack of data in the absence of banking regulation. Using a new dataset of...

By Baubeau Patrice, Monnet Eric, Riva Angelo, Ungaro Stefano
  • Published on 11/16/2018
  • 59 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.02 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 697:
Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure

This paper evaluates and compares the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on the corporate debt structure in the United States. It does so by using a vector autoregression in which policy shocks are identified through high...

  • Published on 10/17/2018
  • 34 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (644.56 KB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 696:
The Inverted-U Relationship Between Credit Access and Productivity Growth

In this paper, Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Gilbert Cette, Rémy Lecat & Hélène Maghin identify two counteracting effects of credit access on productivity growth: on the one hand, better access to credit makes it easier for entrepreneurs to...

By Aghion Philippe, Bergeaud Antonin, Cette Gilbert, Lecat Rémy, Maghin Hélène
  • Published on 10/15/2018
  • EN
  • PDF (834.42 KB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 695:
Does FDI crowd out domestic investment in transition countries?

As a capital flow, foreign direct investment (FDI) is often expected to act as a complement to domestic savings, thus facilitating the financing of local investment projects. While FDI can directly add to the existing capital stock, it can also...

  • Published on 09/17/2018
  • 39 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (773.25 KB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 694:
Monetary Policy and Long-Run Systemic Risk-Taking

As an extension to the literature on the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, this paper studies the existence of a systemic risk-taking channel (SRTC) in the Eurozone, through an original macroeconomic perspective based on causality measures....

By Colletaz Gilbert, Levieuge Grégory, Popescu Alexandra
  • Published on 09/14/2018
  • 45 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (678.24 KB)