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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 733:
Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area

We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR, using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts...

By Ganics Gergely, Odendahl Florens
  • Published on 10/21/2019
  • 65 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.13 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 732:
Central Bank Digital Currency: One, Two or None?

This paper considers the motives, modalities, and possible consequences of central bank digital currency (CBDC) issuance. It starts by drawing a distinction between a wholesale CBDC (WCBDC), accessible only to financial intermediaries, and a retail...

  • Published on 10/15/2019
  • 15 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.77 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 731:
How Do Short-term Financial Constraints Affect SMEs’ Long-Term Investment: Evidence from the Working Capital Channel

This paper investigates the real effects of short-term financial constraints in the light of the working capital channel: cash credit constraints may force SMEs to forgo investment opportunities in order to finance their working capital needs. Building...

  • Published on 10/10/2019
  • 53 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.18 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 730:
Secured and Unsecured Interbank Markets: Monetary Policy, Substitution and the Cost of Collateral

We study the substitution between secured and unsecured interbank markets. Banks are competitive and subject to reserve requirements in a corridor rate system with deposit and lending facilities. Banks face counterparty risk in the unsecured market and...

By Thibaut Piquard, Salakhova Dilyara
  • Published on 09/20/2019
  • 44 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.46 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 729:
No double standards: quantifying the impact of standard harmonization on trade

Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the...

By Schmidt Julia, Steingress Walter
  • Published on 09/05/2019
  • 68 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.33 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 728:
French Households’ Portfolio: The Financial Almost Ideal Demand System Appraisal

Over the last decades, the composition of financial wealth of French households has dramatically changed. We seek explanatory factors for these changes by estimating an extended version of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) model applied to French households...

By Avouyi-Dovi Sanvi, Pfister Christian, Sédillot Franck
  • Published on 09/04/2019
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.19 MB)

September

Publication Working Paper Series no. 727:
Labor Shares in Some Advanced Economies

We study the joint impact of three measurement issues in the empirical literature on the labor share: (i) start and end periods for the empirical analysis; (ii) accounting for self-employment; and (iii) accounting for residential real estate income....

By Cette Gilbert, Koehl Lorraine, Philippon Thomas
  • Published on 09/03/2019
  • EN
  • PDF (2.16 MB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 726:
Bayesian Inference for Markov-switching Skewed Autoregressive Models

We examine Markov-switching autoregressive models where the commonly used Gaussian assumption for disturbances is replaced with a skew-normal distribution. This allows us to detect regime changes not only in the mean and the variance of a specified...

  • Published on 08/23/2019
  • 28 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.01 MB)

August

Publication Working Paper Series no. 725:
In Fed Watchers’ Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy

I construct a novel measure of policy preferences of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as perceived in public. This measure is based on newspaper and financial media coverage of 130 FOMC members serving during 1960-2015. Narratives reveal that...

  • Published on 08/22/2019
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.25 MB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 724:
ALIENOR, a Macrofinancial Model for Macroprudential Policy

ALIENOR is an econometric model built to provide macroeconomic scenarios and conduct macroprudential analysis, in particular for larger stress-test exercises. In the model design, we pay particular attention to the link between financial variables and...

By Couaillier Cyril, Ferrière Thomas, Scalone Valerio
  • Published on 07/18/2019
  • 35 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.92 MB)

July

Publication Working Paper Series no. 723:
Professional Networks and their Coevolution with Executive Careers

This paper examines how networks of professional contacts contribute to the development of the careers of executives of North American and European companies. We build a dynamic model of career progression in which career moves may both depend upon...

By Berardi Nicoletta, Lalanne Marie, Seabright Paul
  • Published on 07/09/2019
  • 54 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.91 MB)

June

Publication Working Paper Series no. 722:
Sovereign Default and Imperfect Tax Enforcement

We show that tax compliance is volatile and markedly responds to fiscal policy. To explore the consequence of this novel stylized fact, we build a model of sovereign debt with limited commitment and imperfect tax enforcement. Fiscal policy persistently...

By Pappadà Francesco, Zylberberg Yanos
  • Published on 06/06/2019
  • 48 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.59 MB)