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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.


Publication Working Paper Series no. 719:
Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks and Growth in Low-Income Countries

This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of...

By Kangni Kpodar, Le Goff Maëlan, Raju Jan Singh
  • Published on 05/15/2019
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.25 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 718:
Estimating US Consumer Gains from Chinese Imports

We estimate the size of US consumer gains from Chinese imports during 2004-2015. Using barcode-level price and expenditure data, we construct inflation rates under CES preferences, and use Chinese exports to Europe as an instrument. We find significant...

By Bai Liang, Stumpner Sebastian
  • Published on 05/06/2019
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.2 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 717:
When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage

Nowcasting GDP growth is extremely useful for policy-makers to assess macroeconomic conditions in real-time. In this paper, we aim at nowcasting euro area GDP with a large database of Google search data. Our objective is to check whether this specific...

By Ferrara Laurent, Simoni Anna
  • Published on 04/11/2019
  • EN
  • PDF (2.39 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 716:
How do lenders price energy efficiency? Evidence from personal consumption loans

At least ex ante, energy efficiency improvements increase investor’s solvency. Associated loans should therefore carry lower interest rates than do otherwise conventional loans. We test this hypothesis using unique weekly panel data on posted interest...

By Giraudet Louis-Gaëtan, Petronevich Anna, Faucheux Laurent
  • Published on 04/01/2019
  • 31 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.25 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 715:
Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components

In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level,...

By Gaulier Guillaume, Sztulman Aude, Ünal Deniz
  • Published on 03/22/2019
  • EN
  • PDF (3.6 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 714:
Regime-Dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: A Structural Interpretation

Using a Markov-switching VAR, we show that the effects of uncertainty shocks on output are four times higher in a regime of economic distress than in a tranquil regime. We then provide a structural interpretation of these facts. To do so, we develop a...

By Lhuissier Stéphane, Tripier Fabien
  • Published on 03/18/2019
  • 39 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.06 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 713:
Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: estimation, selection, and prediction

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. To improve the sparse recovery ability of the model, we also...

  • Published on 03/15/2019
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.4 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 712:
The Cost of Banking Crises: Does the Policy Framework Matter?

This paper empirically investigates how the stringency of macroeconomic policy frameworks impacts the unconditional cost of banking crises. We consider monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies. A restrictive policy framework may promote stronger...

By Levieuge Grégory, Lucotte Yannick, Pradines-Jobet Florian
  • Published on 03/13/2019
  • 46 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.45 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 711:
Rising inequalities in access to home ownership among young households in France, 1973-2013

Amongst young households (ages 25 to 44), inequalities in first-time home-ownership and in the amount of acquired real estate assets have increased between the most modest and the most affluent groups over the past forty years. According to Insee’s...

By Bonnet Carole, Garbinti Bertrand, Grobon Sébastien
  • Published on 03/11/2019
  • 38 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.48 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 710:
Investment and the WACC: new micro evidence for France

We exploit a new dataset of consolidated balance sheets for some 1,850, mostly nonlisted, French corporate groups, in order to investigate the relationship between corporate investment and the cost of capital. Our empirical model is motivated by a...

By Carluccio Juan, Mazet-Sonilhac Clément, Mésonnier Jean-Stéphane
  • Published on 03/05/2019
  • 28 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (3.78 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 709:
Digital vulnerability and performance of firms in developing countries

Almost all coastal economies are now connected to the global Internet through over 300 telecommunications submarine cables (SMCs), so digital vulnerability is now shaped by two structural factors, independent from policy: exposure to broadband...

By Cariolle Joël, Le Goff Maëlan, Santoni Olivier
  • Published on 02/25/2019
  • 46 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (4.32 MB)


Publication Working Paper Series no. 708:
Evaluating the macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary policies using a DSGE model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of...

  • Published on 02/20/2019
  • 32 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.31 MB)