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Working papers

The Working Paper Series showcases research work being conducted at the Banque de France on the development of analytical tools for use in macroeconomic forecasting, monetary policy conduct and the safeguarding of financial stability. The papers do not necessarily reflect the position of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 745:
Population Ageing and the Macroeconomy

We quantify the impact of demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping-generations model. Falling birth and death rates across advanced economies can explain much of the observed fall in real interest...

By Lisack Noëmie, Sajedi Rana, Thwaites Gregory
  • Published on 12/27/2019
  • 53 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (6.1 MB)

December

Publication Working Paper Series no. 744:
The Global Financial Cycle and US Monetary Policy in an Interconnected World

We assess the international spillovers of US monetary policy with a large-scale global VAR which models the world economy as a network of interdependent countries. An expansionary US monetary policy shock contributes to the emergence of a Global...

By Dees Stéphane, Galesi Alessandro
  • Published on 12/16/2019
  • 42 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (5.57 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 743:
Banks' climate commitments and credit to brown industries: new evidence for France

In this paper, I investigate whether and how banks align green words with deeds in terms of credit allocation across more or less carbon-intensive industries in France. I use a rich dataset of bank credit exposures across some fifty industries and two...

  • Published on 11/29/2019
  • 36 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (625.34 KB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 742:
Fiscal and Monetary Regimes: A Strategic Approach

This paper develops a full-fledged strategic analysis of Wallace's “game of chicken”. A public sector facing legacy nominal liabilities is comprised of fiscal and monetary authorities that respectively set the primary surplus and the price level...

By Barthélemy Jean, Plantin Guillaume
  • Published on 11/29/2019
  • 59 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.37 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 741:
Technology-Induced Trade Shocks? Evidence from Broadband Expansion in France

In this paper, we document the presence of “technology-induced” trade in France between 1997 and 2007 and assess its impact on consumer welfare. We use the staggered roll-out of broadband internet to estimate its causal effect on the importing behavior...

By Malgouyres Clément, Mayer Thierry, Mazet-Sonilhac Clément
  • Published on 11/27/2019
  • 61 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (2.84 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 740:
A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Growth has fallen in the U.S., while firm concentration and profits have risen. Meanwhile, labor’s share of national income is down, mostly due to the rising market share of low labor share firms. We propose a theory for these trends in which the...

By Aghion Philippe, Bergeaud Antonin, Boppart Timo, Klenow Peter, Li Huiyu
  • Published on 11/22/2019
  • EN
  • PDF (8.2 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 739:
The Innovation Premium to Soft Skills in Low-Skilled Occupations

Matched employee-employer data from the UK are used to analyze the wage premium to working in an innovative firm. We find that firms that are more R&D intensive pay higher wages on average, and this is particularly true for workers in some low...

By Aghion Philippe, Bergeaud Antonin, Blundell Richard, Griffith Rachel
  • Published on 11/15/2019
  • 66 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.59 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 738:
Pensions and Household Savings: Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Europe

We address the question of whether the heterogeneity in savings is partly due to differences in pension wealth across individuals and across countries, using a European harmonised wealth survey (HFCS) combined with estimates of pension wealth (OECD)....

By D'Addio Anna, Roger Muriel, Savignac Frédérique
  • Published on 11/08/2019
  • 56 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (2.77 MB)

November

Publication Working Paper Series no. 737:
Information Technology and Returns to Scale

This paper investigates the role of IT in shaping recent trends in market concentration, factor income shares, and market competition. Relying on a novel dataset on hardware and software investments in the universe of French firms, we document a robust...

By Lashkari Danial, Bauer Arthur, Boussard Jocelyn
  • Published on 11/07/2019
  • 85 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.73 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 736:
The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France

This paper presents the new model for France of the Banque de France (FR-BDF), as well as its key implications for the analysis of monetary policy transmission in France. Relative to our former model, this new semi-structural model has been improved...

By Lemoine Matthieu, Turunen Harri, Chahad Mohammed, Lepetit Antoine, Zhutova Anastasia, Aldama Pierre, Clerc Pierrick, Laffargue Jean-Pierre
  • Published on 10/31/2019
  • 141 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.78 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 735:
The Real Effects of Checks and Balances: Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment

This article explores the economic effects of checks and balances on corporate investment and employment. I use U.S. gubernatorial election results from 1978 to 2010 as a source of exogenous variation in whether the party controls both the executive...

  • Published on 10/28/2019
  • 77 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.98 MB)

October

Publication Working Paper Series no. 734:
The Circular Relationship Between Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates

In most advanced economies, both real interest rates and productivity growth have decreased since the early 1990s. In this paper, we explore the mechanism whereby a circular relationship links these two quantities. While productivity is a key driver of...

  • Published on 10/24/2019
  • 39 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (2.27 MB)