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Banque de France Bulletin

The Banque de France Bulletin covers a range of subjects monitored, handled or studied by central banks. It serves as an information tool for a broad readership and offers educational insights so that all readers can form their own opinions.
As of the March-April 2018 edition, the articles will be published on a staggered basis and then translated into English.

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Previously, the Quarterly Selection of Articles was published every three months and included a selection of articles that had already appeared in French.

As of the May-June 2019 issue, the Banque de France Bulletin includes an "Economic Research" section. In this section, Banque de France researchers present their views on a subject, condensed into a few non-technical pages, with charts and a bibliography for further reading.

December

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°238 : article 1
The French life insurance market during the health crisis

Although the French life insurance market was impacted by the health crisis, it nevertheless showed its resilience. During the first lockdown, gross inflows slowed temporarily and redemptions increased briefly before dropping sharply and then reverting...

By Saïda Baddou, Coffinet Jérôme, Cécile Fraysse, Jarrijon Stéphane
Thematic: Financial stability and financial system
  • Published on 12/22/2021
  • 8 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (405.88 KB)
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December

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 9
Developing climate transition scenarios to manage financial risks

The Banque de France and the ACPR have developed an analytical framework to quantify climate transition scenarios and assess the associated financial risks. This type of framework can be used to carry out climate stress test exercises. Its first...

By Allen Thomas, Boissinot Jean, Clerc Laurent, Dees Stéphane
Thematic: Financial stability and financial system
  • Published on 12/22/2021
  • 10 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (337.86 KB)
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December

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 6
The increase in non residents’ real estate investments is driven by expatriates

At the end of 2019, non residents owned 1.5% of residential real estate in France, up from 1% in 2001. The value of their real estate assets amounted to EUR 125 billion, four times more than in the early 2000s. Half of this increase can be explained by...

By Morel Roxane, Uri Julien
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 12/06/2021
  • 12 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (5.47 MB)
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November

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 8
Non-residents held fewer shares in French CAC 40 companies at end-2020

At end-2020, non-residents held EUR 667 billion worth of shares in French CAC 40 companies, out of a total market capitalisation of EUR 1,672 billion, which corresponds to a holding rate of 39.9%, down for the seventh consecutive year. Changes in stock...

By Guette-Khiter Christophe
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 11/26/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (420.59 KB)
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November

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 2
Worldwide GDP decline in 2020: the relative impact of health restrictions, the responsiveness of public and private economic agents, and sectoral specialisation

The intensity of the pandemic (as measured by the number of people infected with the virus or dying from the disease) explains only a small share of the shock to GDP in the major economies in 2020. Half of the shock can be attributed to the scale of...

By Chatelais Nicolas
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 11/09/2021
  • 13 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (394.5 KB)
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October

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 1
French collective investment schemes proved highly resilient during the crisis in 2020

In 2020, despite the crisis, assets under management in French and European collective investment funds (CIS) increased. In particular, it was a historic year for money market funds, thanks to exceptional inflows: up 25% for France and 14% for the euro...

By Le Goff Jean-Luc, Ponsart Maxime
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 10/22/2021
  • 11 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (582.55 KB)
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October

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 7
Biodiversity loss and financial stability: a new frontier for central banks and financial supervisors?

Central banks (in particular the Banque de France and the European Central Bank) have played a leading role in taking into account the economic and financial issues of climate change. In addition to climate-related issues, the scientific community is...

By Salin Mathilde, Svartzman Romain, Biermann Lisa, Concordet Renaud, Grisey Léa, Le Calvar Erlan
Thematic: Financial stability and financial system
  • Published on 10/20/2021
  • 12 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (501.62 KB)
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October

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°236 : article 6
Measuring firms’ inflation expectations

Economic agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for monetary policy, in particular those of firms, as they set the prices of goods and services produced and consumed in the euro area. At end-2020, the Banque de France therefore set up a pilot...

By Bouche Paul, Gerardin Mathilde, Gautier Erwan, Savignac Frédérique
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 10/19/2021
  • 10 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (346.14 KB)
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October

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 3
In 2020, the support measures cushioned the impact of the drop in activity for SMEs

In 2020, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) posted a 3.7% decline in turnover. Their value added fell more sharply (by 4.2%) due to the slowdown in output, contrasting with 2009 when the 5.4% drop in SME turnover led only to a 3.7% fall in value...

By Graignon Maïté, Mérébier Abel
Thematic: Companies
  • Published on 10/15/2021
  • 15 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (469.74 KB)
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September

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°236 : article 5
The importance of the link between climate change and population for economic development

This articles proposes a review of the literature on the effects of climate change on population and economic growth, especially in developing countries. Climate change affects mortality and living conditions via the direct impacts of extreme...

By Lesterquy Pauline
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 09/29/2021
  • 11 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (1.12 MB)
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September

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°237 : article 4
Green finance in the Asia-Pacific region: mobilisation spearheaded by central banks and supervisory authorities

Central banks and supervisory authorities play a key role in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of green finance. They are often driving forces in their countries, both in terms of raising awareness of the effect of environmental risks on the financial...

By De la Serve Marie-Elisabeth, Revelin David, Triki Karim
Thematic: Financial stability and financial system
  • Published on 09/21/2021
  • 10 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (444.02 KB)
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September

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°236 : article 4
Review of world and France travel in 2020: from annus horribilis to lasting reconfiguration?

Covid 19 has severely disrupted international travel. In 2020, the restrictions on movement that each country put in place on both traveller arrivals and departures, combined with internal measures, led to a global decrease of 74% in international...

By Le Gallo Florian, Schmitt Kevin
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 09/15/2021
  • 13 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (549.94 KB)
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September

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°236 : article 3
French goods exports and the challenge of the Covid 19 crisis

The Covid 19 pandemic that hit the world in 2020 demonstrated that, on an economic level, some countries may be more exposed than others to the impact of health restrictions by virtue of their particular trade specialisation. The analysis presented in...

By Berthou Antoine, Gaulier Guillaume
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 09/07/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (374.88 KB)
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September

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°236 : article 1
Twenty years of growth in France’s trade in services

Trade in services is playing an increasingly important role in French foreign trade. Between 2000 and 2019, it grew by 156%, twice as fast as trade in goods (+75%) or GDP (+64%). It also generated an average annual surplus of over EUR 20 billion. The...

By Bui Quang Pierre, Gigout Timothée
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 09/03/2021
  • 14 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (579.55 KB)
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September

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°236 : article 2
Does household mortgage debt influence the transmission of monetary policy in the United Kingdom?

Does monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom depend on household mortgage debt? This article shows that changes in Bank of England base rates have a greater impact on consumption when a larger proportion of households are financially...

By Hubert Paul
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 09/02/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (476.63 KB)
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August

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°235 : article 6
How have French exports fared as regards price and cost competitiveness since the start of the 2000s?

After a first decade marked by deterioration in its cost competitiveness relative to Germany in particular, France has fully made up the difference in this loss of competitiveness since 2010. Meanwhile, France’s goods and services export performance...

By Berthou Antoine, Gaulier Guillaume
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 08/09/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (405.94 KB)
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July

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°235 : article 2
Is there a need for greater banking consolidation in France and Europe?

In an environment of persistently low interest rates and low profitability, coupled with the impact of the health crisis, the European banking sector is facing many challenges, some of which may be partly related to overcapacity issues. Since 2009,...

By Gabrieli Silvia, Marionnet Denis, Sammeth Frank
Thematic: Financial stability and financial system
  • Published on 07/30/2021
  • 11 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (406.44 KB)
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July

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°235 : article 5
Covid-19 and house prices in the UK: what can be learned from web-scraping data?

Official statistics on the housing market generally provide aggregated and/or lagged data. In addition, a lot of freely accessible granular information can be collected in real time from real estate websites using web-scraping techniques (automated...

By Bricongne Jean-Charles, Chatelais Nicolas, Meunier Baptiste, Pouget Sylvain, Coffinet Jérôme, Kintzler Étienne
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 07/29/2021
  • 7 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (282.87 KB)
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July

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°235 : article 4
Capital operating times plummeted in 2020 amid the unprecedented use of teleworking. Results of the survey conducted by the Banque de France in September 2020

In 2020, capital operating times (COT) decreased by 4.9% in the manufacturing industry. This decline, comparable to the downturn in the industrial production index (IPI), reflects adjustments made by businesses to address the shock caused by the health...

By Lesterquy Pauline, Baudry Laurent, Tarrieu Sylvie, Gerardin Mathilde, Dekoninck Honorine, Heurtebize Fabrice, Zory Julien
Thematic: Companies
  • Published on 07/22/2021
  • 14 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (447.83 KB)
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July

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°235 : article 3
The cash industry in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis

Developments in the cash industry have been marked in recent years by fundamental trends, such as the rapid dematerialisation of payment instruments and the expansion of e-commerce. These trends have resulted in a decline in the use of cash, and hence...

By Bayol Louis-Alexandre, Laplace Emmanuelle, De Pastor Raymond
Thematic: Means of payment and currency in circulation
  • Published on 07/13/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (435.27 KB)
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July

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°235 : article 1
Convergence trading, arbitrage and systemic risk in the United States

Convergence trading, especially arbitrage, is used on a large scale by investment banks and hedge funds, and contributes to the smooth integration of financial markets. However, it is also a source of systemic risk, as the transactions involve short...

By Dastarac Hugues
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 07/02/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (336.13 KB)
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June

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°234 : article 7
What explains the persistent weakness of euro area inflation since 2013?

Annual inflation in the euro area, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), fell by an average of 1.1 percentage points between the period 1999 2007, which preceded the financial crisis, and the period 2013 19 which followed it....

By Diev Pavel, Kalantzis Yannick, Lalliard Antoine, Mogliani Matteo
  • Published on 06/11/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (422.15 KB)
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June

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°234 : article 6
A European safe asset: new perspectives

A genuine European safe asset would have several benefits for financial stability and European integration and would facilitate the financing of public policies by reducing borrowing costs. Many proposals aim at creating a European safe asset, often...

By Gossé Jean-Baptiste, Anass Mourjane
Thematic: Economy and international financing
  • Published on 06/04/2021
  • 10 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (367.26 KB)
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June

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°234 : article 2
Money and its counterparts: instruments and reflections of monetary policy

Crisis periods, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, represent major shocks to growth and inflation and are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty. In the face of such events, it is essential to draw on a broad set of indicators to guide monetary...

By El Amri Wydad, Mouriaux François, Wicky Yann, Bussière Matthieu, Horny Guillaume, Sahuc Jean-Guillaume
  • Published on 06/03/2021
  • 13 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (496.76 KB)
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May

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°234 : article 4
Responsible investment: an issue of growing importance for the Banque de France and the central banking community

Over recent years, responsible investment has come to the fore as a major focus of work by central banks. ...

By Afota Amandine, Bonnin Benjamin, Bourgey Clément
Thematic: Financial stability and financial system
  • Published on 05/28/2021
  • 8 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (348.27 KB)
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May

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°234 : article 3
Inflation in France during the lockdowns

Measured at a monthly frequency by INSEE, France’s national statistical office, inflation reflects the change in the prices of French households’ average consumption basket. Each product is assigned an importance in the price index equal to its weight...

By Castelletti-Font Barbara, Ulgazi Youssef, Vertier Paul, Gautier Erwan
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 05/21/2021
  • 12 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (532.5 KB)
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April

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°233 : article 4
Public and private French debt securities are among the most held by non-residents

France is the fifth largest issuer of debt securities, far behind the United States (39% of the world total), Japan and China. Its share of the world total (5%) is close to that of the United Kingdom, but higher than that of Germany (4%). ...

By Gervais Emmanuel
  • Published on 04/30/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (471.47 KB)
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April

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°234 : article 1
Monetary policy measures during the first phase of the Covid-19 crisis

Covid-19 began to circulate in the euro area with a significant number of cases in late February and early March 2020. By 11 March, it had been declared a “global pandemic” by the World Health ...

By Penalver Adrian, Szczerbowicz Urszula
  • Published on 04/15/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (376.11 KB)
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March

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°233 : article 3
The financial position of French companies: strengths and weaknesses on the eve of the pandemic

Non financial corporations entered the pandemic with several factors in their favour: three straight years of robust growth, higher profit shares, consistently low interest rates and increasing cash balances. ...

By Bureau Benjamin, Py Loriane
Thematic: Companies
  • Published on 03/29/2021
  • 17 pages
  • FR
  • PDF (510.4 KB)
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March

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°233 : article 1
The financial health of VSEs-SMEs: an essential determinant of their credit access

Since 2012, the Banque de France has carried out a quarterly survey of very small enterprises (VSEs) and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to assess their access to bank credit. The vast majority of demand for investment loans is met, with an...

By Gerardin Mathilde, Nicolas Théo
Thematic: Credit and financing
  • Published on 03/17/2021
  • 11 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (445.63 KB)
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March

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°232 : article 5
Insurers’ investments weather the crisis despite tensions

Investments by insurers established in France reached EUR 2,813 billion at end-2019, up EUR 211 billion on the previous year. Under pressure from the further fall in interest rates, insurers favoured bonds issued by the private sector and by non-euro...

By Arias Liliana, Capitaine Gaëlle, Ferrand-Tenot Élodie, Guimiot Frédéric, Roero Côme
Thematic: Credit and financing
  • Published on 03/08/2021
  • 16 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (570.12 KB)
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February

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°232 : article 8
The link between money and inflation since 2008

The unconventional monetary policies implemented by central banks in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and subsequently in that of the Covid-19 health crisis, have led to a faster increase in money than in prices, prompting a review of the link...

By Bussière Matthieu, Sahuc Jean-Guillaume, Pfister Christian
Thematic: Economic research
  • Published on 02/26/2021
  • 8 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (429.26 KB)
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February

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°232 : article 7
Outstanding loans to enterprises increased sharply in France in the first half of 2020

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis in March 2020, outstanding bank loans to enterprises have surged: between end-February and end-June 2020, they rose by EUR 101 billion. This upswing can be attributed first and foremost to substantial drawing...

By Vinas Frédéric
Thematic: Companies
  • Published on 02/24/2021
  • 7 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (343.75 KB)
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February

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°232 : article 3
Banks from 2008 to 2019: net income affected by a fall in intermediation margins but lower provisions

The onset of persistently low interest rates in the euro area during the decade 2008 2019 impacted the accounts of financial intermediaries, as monetary policy measures supported demand for credit and led to an increase in the size of the balance...

By Cruzet Thibault, Horny Guillaume, Lattaud Audrey, Wicky Yann
Thematic: Financial stability and financial system
  • Published on 02/22/2021
  • 18 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (587.95 KB)
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February

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°232 : article 6
France’s national wealth in 2019 Growth underpinned by stock market prices

France’s national wealth (or net worth) continued to expand in 2019, reaching EUR 16,421 billion at the end of the year or 8.3 times its net domestic product. The robust rise (+4.8% after +4.4% in 2018) was driven by an increase in the country’s...

By Karmous Inès, Desseaux Laure
Thematic: Macroeconomics, microeconomics and structures
  • Published on 02/18/2021
  • 9 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (249.98 KB)
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February

Publication Banque de France Bulletin n°232 : article 4
Despite the decline in the use of cash, it remains the most widely used means of payment in France

In 2019, the European Central Bank (ECB) updated its survey on household payment attitudes in the euro area. As in the previous survey (2016), it appears that cash remains the preferred means of payment in number terms for day-to-day purchases. However...

By Chouteau Lorraine, Laplace Emmanuelle, Politronacci Emmanuelle
  • Published on 02/09/2021
  • 11 pages
  • EN
  • PDF (741.23 KB)
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